Former U.K. mayor on course to become U.K. PM with Labour nominations underway

Political Analyst Scott Lucas on what led to the resignation of British Prime Minister Starmer and if Andy Burnham could be his successor.

Veteran politician Andy Burnham was on track Thursday to become Britain’s next prime minister with dozens of Labour lawmakers set to formally nominate him to succeed Keir Starmer as party leader.

The 56-year-old is the only member of parliament from the U.K.’s ruling party to publicly declare themselves a candidate to replace Starmer, who announced he was quitting last month.

Burnham appeared on course to be crowned Labour leader unchallenged as the first day of nominations got underway.

“It is all starting to feel very real,” Burnham said in a social media video posted shortly after the process opened on Thursday morning.

If Burnham reaches at least 322 nominations then it would no longer be mathematically possible for another challenger to get the 81 signatures required to join the race out of the total of 402 Labour MPs.

Nominations close on July 16. In the absence of a contest, Burnham will be crowned Labour leader -- and prime minister in waiting -- at a special conference the following day.

He would then replace Starmer at 10 Downing Street on July 20 after meeting King Charles III, becoming Britain’s seventh prime minister in a decade.

“There’s no one else,” one Labour MP told AFP on condition of anonymity after nominating Burnham.

If a contest were to materialize, then the victor would be announced on August 29 following a ballot of Labour members and affiliated unions.

Armed forces minister Al Carns, thought to be Burnham’s final remaining potential challenger, ruled himself out of the running late Wednesday.

He had expressed hope a leadership contest would give the party the “opportunity for a proper debate”.

“But months of internal Labour politics isn’t what the country needs right now,” he said.

Burnham, nicknamed the “King of the North” for winning three consecutive Greater Manchester mayoral elections, has vowed to “bring about the biggest rebalancing of power our country has seen”.

His signature proposal is the creation of a “No. 10 North” to coordinate greater devolution -- a reference to the U.K. prime minister’s address at 10 Downing Street.

Burnham has pledged fiscal discipline and to reduce the country’s ballooning welfare bill, having already sought to calm markets by committing to the government’s current borrowing limits.

But he will face the same challenges that buffeted Starmer’s premiership -- notably anaemic growth, a cost-of-living squeeze and an unpredictable U.S. president in Donald Trump.

He has also indicated he could stake out a different path to Starmer on Israel, which enjoyed solid backing from the Labour government even as criticism grew of its war in Gaza.

“I am sorry about that,” Burnham told the Guardian newspaper in an interview published on Thursday. “The response has too often not been good enough. We need to do better.”

Starmer, under pressure for months over policy U-turns and questions about his judgement, announced on June 22 that he was resigning after losing the support of Labour MPs.

His move came after Burnham won a by-election that allowed him to return to parliament to launch a widely expected leadership challenge.

On the day Starmer announced his resignation, Burnham was sworn into parliament, becoming an MP again following his stint between 2001 and 2017.

‘Breath of fresh air’

Afterwards, some 200 Labour MPs feted Burnham during a group photo in Westminster, in a clear sign that they expect him to take over.

Former health minister Wes Streeting announced he was dropping his intention to run and backing Burnham.

Burnham -- seen as slightly to the left of the more centrist Starmer, and more charismatic -- is Labour’s most popular politician, surveys show.

Many MPs feel he is the party’s best chance of clawing back support from Nigel Farage’s anti-immigrant Reform U.K. party before the next general election, expected in 2029.

Reform has led Labour in national opinion polls for well over a year, although the gap has narrowed in recent weeks amid questions over Farage’s finances.

One Labour MP, who asked not to be named, said the party was right to “roll the dice” on Burnham, saying “he couldn’t be worse than Starmer”.

“I hope he’s a breath of fresh air,” the lawmaker told AFP.