Eric Ham: Donald Trump’s recent setbacks offer opportunities for Canada

U.S. President Donald Trump looks to Prime Minister Mark Carney as they raise their glasses during a toast at a dinner with leaders in Gyeongju, South Korea, Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Eric Ham is based in Washington, D.C. and is a political analyst for CTV News. He’s a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress and writes for CTVNews.ca.

WASHINGTON - U.S. President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, imposed on every nation, including America’s biggest trading partner Canada, remain on pause.

Tensions reached a fevered pitch after Ontario’s premier, Doug Ford, launched an ad featuring the GOP’s political godfather, Ronald Reagan.

The widely viewed spot sparked massive outrage throughout Republican circles. However, devastating losses suffered by the president’s party in recent elections, combined with mass defections within the MAGA base and a pending U.S. Supreme Court decision on import duties all seemed to do what facts, data, and analysis could not. Make Trump stand still and even reverse course on his economy-killing levies.

For months the Trump administration weaponized tariffs, bullying nations into submission on faux-trade deals.

Perhaps none felt the brunt more seismically than its northern neighbour and closest ally, Canada. Sixty years of economic integration, camaraderie, and trust all evaporated in a matter of months. Left in its wake; enmity, resentment, and doubt.

Ottawa remains left out in the cold

In fact, Canada remains the only G7 nation without a trade agreement with the White House. Even as the Trump administration — after a series of stinging legal and political defeats — is finally capitulating and reversing course, Ottawa remains left out in the cold. Formal negotiations between both sides remain shuttered and the White House is showing no sense of urgency though both economies are in much need of an economic boost.

Deeming the $1.2-trillion U.S. goods trade deficit in 2024 a national emergency — even though the United States has run trade deficits every year since 1975 — Trump became the first president to invoke punitive economic sanctions on adversaries and allies alike.

Should the U.S. Supreme Court take the rare step and rule against the White House, the 25% levy on all Canadian non-CUSMA compliant goods would be rolled back. Already, two lower courts have found the White House did not have the authority to impose global tariffs.

If the conservative-leaning U.S. Supreme Court upholds the lower court rulings, Trump’s reign of economic terror will come to a dramatic end. However, such relief might only be short-lived as CUSMA negotiations begin in earnest in 2026. Undoubtedly, Trump’s “bull in the china shop” negotiating style will send shockwaves across markets and supply chains as the region prepares for a reset.

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So while nations like Brazil and even Mexico are finding relief at least short-term, Canada continues to struggle under the weight of punitive levies.

Key industries like the automotive sector, a key pillar of the national and regional economy, try to remain competitive against an uncertain backdrop. Tariffs on steel and aluminum, enacted under Section 232, remain intact and will not be impacted by the court’s ruling. This leaves companies, workers, and consumers to cope with crippling duties.

However, the increasing political pressure facing Trump as he grapples with runaway inflation and internal strife within MAGA could be a huge turning point for Ottawa seeking relief from the diplomatic morass.

Perhaps a rebellious and fracturing base along with robust legal challenges, can finally get the Trump Administration to lower the temperature on this years-long trade imbroglio.

Republican lawmakers, equally sensitive to and acutely aware of the damage wrought by the tensions, are beginning to make their voices heard. Speaking at the annual Halifax International Security Forum, North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer, acknowledged the strain between Washington and Ottawa is adversely impacting his state’s economy.

Noting that malls, hotels, and restaurants are just a few industries being pummelled as Canadians drive to stay away from the U.S.

“Our relationship with Canadians is very personal,” he said. “The best way to fix this is to get back to the negotiating table and fix whatever it is that separates us on trade .... People in both countries are anxious to reunite.”

Stinging legal rebukes and a recalcitrant base be damned.

Desire to reshape Canadian independence

Amid Trump’s erratic, volatile, and supremely unpredictable actions, the one overarching constant is his driving desire to reshape Canadian independence. Molding and orchestrating efforts that ultimately lead to its eventual subservience as a territory of the United States.

As the 232 tariffs underscore, the White House will exhaust any and all options it believes will continue to squeeze and create hardships for Ottawa.

Nevertheless, Carney might have an opening, albeit limited, to take advantage of the Trump administration’s recent political and legal setbacks.

However, considering the President recognizes he has no more elections, no more races to run, and no more campaigns to stand up; a desire to be less acrimonious still might be elusive which could make the president more contemptuous, more maniacal, and worse — more dangerous.

More from Eric Ham:

• Doug Ford’s ‘bad cop’ routine reaches its limits in Canada’s trade talks with U.S.
• Strongman next door: How Trump’s America puts pressure on Canada
• The truth behind the smiles
• Border issues a potential derailment to CUSMA extension