Windsor’s economic engine is slowing down. “The slowdown period that we saw toward the end of 2025 is seeping into this year,” said economist David Ristovski. He is a member of Signal49 Research, predicting a general economic slowdown this year. So far in 2026, just a small growth of 0.6 per cent has been recorded. “A lot of that really boils down to ongoing uncertainty and the ongoing situation south of the border regarding tariffs and that will continue to impact short term prospects for the Windsor-Essex region,” he said. The region weathered the tariff storm and saw the economy grow by 2.3 per cent last year. Ristovski says manufacturing makes up about 25 per cent of the economy in they area. “In fact, employment in the sector grew 16.4 per cent,” Ristovski told CTV News. He says a lot of those jobs were linked to the NextStar battery plant and other investments within the EV supply chain. “However, if it hadn’t been for the electric vehicle supply chain with the local economy, then the performance for last year, the outlook for this year would be bleaker.” Conversely, a local manufacturer says if it hadn’t been for the EV mandate to go 100 per cent electric by 2035, a stalled economy wouldn’t be a discussion right now. “They tried to push it too fast and too much for us, so manufacturing stalled. Now they’re coming out with ICE [internal combustion engine] vehicles and it’s a big driving force,” said David Thibert, president of Mega Mold International. So much so, his company is hiring. “Our book, our upcoming work, is full for at least another year. We’re going to be on overtime right through until Christmas.” Ristovski expects the area’s population decline of 0.4 per cent and a cooling labour market to help push the area’s unemployment rate from 8 per cent to around 8.7 per cent. However, officials at Workforce Windsor-Essex suspect the rate may be lower when released next week once the third shift at Windsor Assembly Plant is considered. “I’m hoping it will continue to fall, and we’ll see sort of what the actual unemployment rate might be closer to in this area,” said Justin Falconer, CEO of Workforce Windsor-Essex. Invest Windsor Essex CEO Gordon Orr says things are shaping up thanks to projects in the pipeline. “What we’re going to do is continue to diversify. We’re going to help continue support local business expansion and we’re also going to continue to attract new global investment. That’s what we’re focused on,” he said. Orr says diversification will include agriculture, clean energy and defence. “Rebounding in 2027 is what’s predicted as we continue to look at these trade effects a little less and of course the economy being better,” he said.
