Trump factor could lead to higher turnout in Canada’s federal election: pollster

There is evidence of a tightening race in the federal election, but with less than three weeks to go, the Liberals remain the party to beat.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House and the persistent threat of punishing tariffs has Canadians who don’t usually care about politics actively following the federal election campaign, according to a Vancouver-based pollster.

Mario Canseco, president of Research Co., is predicting voter turnout could surge in 2025 as a result.

“The level of attention that Canadians are putting to the tariff issue is higher than anything I’ve seen,” he said.

Major issues, fatigue in government, and scandals tend to push voters to the polls.

But Canseco argued that even the SNC-Lavalin affair and the sponsorship scandal only held moderate voter attention.

“The tariffs is at 84 per cent,” he said, adding that even Canadians who never vote or are cynical about politics, are paying attention.

The last time voter turnout surpassed 75 per cent was in 1988, when free trade with the United States was seen as the primary issue.

“Could we see three out of four Canadians who are eligible to cast a ballot do it? This could be the season for it,” Canseco said.

Meanwhile, Nanos tracking shows the race remains tight with the gap in support for the Liberals and Conservatives narrowing as the campaign approaches the halfway mark.