Metro Vancouver’s housing market is poised for another year of softer conditions, with new data showing prices are expected to edge lower through 2026 as buyers remain cautious and inventory continues to build. According to the Royal LePage 2026 Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver is expected to fall 3.5 per cent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of next year, landing at approximately $1,147,868. Detached homes are expected to see the steepest decline, with median prices dropping five per cent to about $1.61 million. Condominium prices are projected to fall three per cent to roughly $712,853. The forecast follows a year marked by lower sales activity and growing inventory levels across Metro Vancouver. Royal LePage says homes are sitting on the market longer as many buyers step back, concerned about broader economic uncertainty or waiting for prices to come down further. “Momentum in the Vancouver housing market continues to decline,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker at Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “Sales remain well below the region’s 10-year average, and growing inventory levels are sitting longer as buyers hold back.” Ryalls says two groups in particular are delaying purchases: buyers worried about the economy, and those attempting to time the market. “With plenty of inventory available and prices edging downward, there is little urgency for buyers to move quickly,” he said. “Many feel comfortable waiting, watching and weighing their options before making a decision.” The brokerage notes a rise in “subject to sale” transactions, as move-up buyers struggle to secure a deal on their current home before committing to a new purchase. While Vancouver is expected to see continued price declines next year, the national picture looks different. Royal LePage forecasts the aggregate price of a Canadian home will rise one per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, with most major markets seeing modest growth. Vancouver and Toronto are the only large regions expected to record year-over-year price drops. Ryalls says Metro Vancouver’s market could regain some momentum if inventory tightens or if buyer confidence improves. “A small nudge could help drive more activity in 2026,” he said, noting that even a modest shift in conditions can prompt buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines. For now, Royal LePage expects Metro Vancouver to remain a buyer-friendly market heading into the new year, with more selection and fewer competitive pressures than the region has seen in recent years.
