Election 2025: Victoria shaping up to be a tight race

For the last 20 years, voters in Victoria, B.C., have elected an NDP MP. That could change in an election widely seen as a close, two-way race.

Spring is in the air, as is the potential for political change in Victoria, a federal riding that’s voted NDP for the past 19 years, but polling suggests might be ready to flip back to the Liberals on the wave of support for Mark Carney.

“Your voter over the age of 55 who is very worried about Donald Trump, who isn’t really happy about Pierre Poilievre, [is considering] voting Liberal, so that could mean that the Victoria seat could go red,” said Mario Canseco, a pollster with Research Co.

It’s a trend supported by polling in many ridings across the country, including B.C.’s capital.

“I would say Will Greaves by a squeaker,” said University of Victoria political scientist Michael Prince, when asked who he predicts will win the riding. “I think the Liberals, I think there’s going to be a lot of surprises across the country on election night.”

Greaves, the Liberal candidate and UVic professor says he’s encouraged by what he’s hearing on the campaign trail.

“Even our sovereignty has been threatened in the last coupe weeks, and people are taking that very seriously and it’s causing folks to reassess who they want to support,” said Greaves Monday.

Asked about the spectre of being dethroned by a Grit, NDP incumbent Laurel Collins—first elected in 2019—repeated party messaging about the NDP being the party that beats Conservatives and the importance of defeating Pierre Poilievre, while not focussing on her Liberal opponent.

“It is the NDP who beats Conservatives, here in Victoria and all of Vancouver Island,” said Collins Monday.

Last Thursday BC NDP Premier David Eby was seemingly well-aware of seismic shifts in voter intent from a few months ago and the potential threat to NDP’s incumbents, including Collins, who he said he hopes is re-elected.

“I will say it’s obviously going to be a challenging election for the federal NDP,” he told reporters. “I hope that those hard-working MPs are able to return to Ottawa because they’ve done some good work for Canadians,” he later added.

Other candidates in the riding include the Conservatives’ Angus Ross, a former police officer, whose party didn’t respond to interview requests by deadline, and the Greens’ Michael Doherty, a former lawyer who says he thinks he has a chance of punching through for a win in the riding.

“It’s wide open, a very Green riding, a high proportion of seniors who vote Green,” said Doherty.