Close 2-way federal race may spell trouble for NDP in B.C. battlegrounds

With polls showing a tight race in the upcoming federal election seats held by the NDP could flip – having an impact on the balance of power.

With polls showing a tight, two-way race between the Liberal and Conservative parties in the federal election, some British Columbia ridings are shaping up to be critical battlegrounds.

Pollster Mario Canseco, the president of Research Co., says the New Democrats will be hard-pressed to match the 13 B.C. seats they took in 2021.

Even NDP leader Jagmeet Singh could be at risk in the new riding of Burnaby Central.

“We’re seeing fluctuation from former NDP voters in 2021 to the Liberal Party in 2025,” Canseco said, explaining the strategic voting dynamic taking shape.

“If this happens in the (former) Burnaby South riding, then there is a real possibility that Jagmeet Singh cannot win his seat.”

Traditional top issues such as affordability and criminal justice seem to be taking a backseat in this campaign, with threats of tariffs and annexation from south of the border dominating voters’ considerations.

Richmond East–Steveston has gone Liberal, then Conservative, then Liberal in the last three elections.

City Coun. Kash Heed told CTV News he expects voters will be placing less focus on the local candidates this year.

“When people go into that voting booth, they’re not going to be thinking who is (Conservative candidate) Zach Segal and who is (Liberal candidate) Parm Bains,” Heed said. “They’re going to be thinking, who is Mark Carney and who is Pierre Poilievre.”

Canseco named Richmond East–Steveston and three other ridings — Vancouver–Kingsway, West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea-to-Sky Country and North Island–Powell River — as races he’ll be keeping a close eye on this year.

The Vancouver Island riding, in particular, presents an interesting case, with potential vote splitting between the incumbent NDP and the surging Liberals capable of opening the door for a Conservative win, the pollster said.

“There are places in the Island that used to be very anti-government and voted for the Reform Party consistently in the late ‘90s and early 2000s,” Canseco said. “We haven’t seen blue in the map in the Island for quite a while, but I think that’s the best chance they have this time around.”

Depending on how close the race is elsewhere in the country, these tight B.C. contests could prove decisive, Canseco said.

“I sincerely hope this is the election where everybody out east stays awake longer until the results are counted in B.C.,” he said.

With files from CTV News Vancouver’s Ben Miljure