B.C. NDP, Conservatives statistically tied after United party capitulation, survey finds

Tight race in B.C. election, poll suggests The first poll since the collapse of BC United shows how support is shifting among voters who are set to cast their ballots next month.

Support for both the B.C. NDP and B.C. Conservatives has surged since the capitulation of B.C. United, leaving the two parties in a statistical tie, according to a new poll.

The latest survey from Research Co. found 44 per cent of decided voters would cast a ballot for David Eby's NDP if the election were held today, while 42 per cent would back John Rustad's Conservatives.

Sonia Furstenau's Greens remain in third place, with 10 per cent support.

The results reflect a three-percentage-point increase for the NDP and a four-percentage-point increase for the Conservatives since Research Co.'s previous poll, conducted in July before United leader Kevin Falcon pulled the plug on his party's campaign.

The NDP remains in the lead in Metro Vancouver and on Vancouver Island, while the Conservatives are ahead in the Fraser Valley and the Interior, according to the survey.

“The disappearance of B.C. United has propelled the B.C. Conservatives to first place in Southern B.C., where the race was exceptionally close in July,” says Mario Canseco, Research Co. president, in a statement.

The results also marked the first time a majority of B.C. respondents said they would consider casting a ballot for the Conservatives if a candidate were nominated in their riding, at 52 per cent – a seven-percentage-point increase from the previous poll.

By comparison, 55 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting for the NDP and 40 per cent said they would consider voting Green, an increase of four percentage points for each party from July.

Asked who would make the best premier of B.C., 36 per cent of those polled chose Eby, while 27 per cent picked Rustad and 12 per cent picked Furstenau.

An equal proportion of men supported Eby and Rustad on that question, Research Co. said, while the NDP leader was supported by nearly twice as many women as his Conservative counterpart.

The survey was conducted online from Sept. 9 to 11 among a representative sample of 802 adults in B.C. Research Co. said the data was statistically weighed according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.