B.C. battlegrounds fluid as Liberals, Conservatives eye gains from NDP, Greens

This composite image shows, left to right, Liberal Leader Mark Carney in Ottawa on March 27, 2025; Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in Toronto on March 30, 2025 and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in Edmonton on April 1, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld, Laura Proctor, Christinne Muschi

British Columbia has been a sanctuary for New Democrats and the Green Party in recent federal elections — but strategic voting in the upcoming election could push those parties to the brink, politics watchers say.

Previously safe ridings are now considered to be in play for the Liberals and the Conservatives, making British Columbia one of the most unpredictable regions to call for the April 28 election.

David Black, an associate professor at Royal Roads University and an expert in communications, said U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats have shifted the election from a “traditional, multi-party and regionally driven” vote to a “national referendum” on who should lead Canada’s fight with the United States.

“What we’re seeing … is that people who might have been comfortable voting for an NDP candidate because they like the party, they like the values — or likewise doing the same for the Greens — are less comfortable doing that because it might be seen as a kind of luxury,” Black said.

The New Democrats held 13 of the 43 federal ridings in B.C. — the highest number of seats the party has in any Canadian province.

B.C. is also home to one of two seats formerly held by Greens in Canada, and party co-leader Elizabeth May is seeking re-election in the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands.

Mike McDonald is chief strategy officer at the consultancy firm Kirk and Co. and the co-host of the Hotel Pacifico podcast on B.C. politics. He said that with the NDP and the Greens polling lower nationally, “the votes have to flow somewhere.”

“There are so many interesting races that it’s hard to only pull out five or six of them,” McDonald said, referring to the B.C. ridings. “They’re interesting because no one would have thought they would be interesting two months ago.

“And it’s almost been like there’s been a Liberal fever, and it hasn’t broken yet.”

Among McDonald’s top picks for ridings to watch are two on Vancouver Island, where the NDP holds six of the seven seats.

The rise of the Liberals and the Conservatives at the expense of those two parties has created a rare potential for four-way races. The most prominent may be Nanaimo-Ladysmith — where all of the major party candidates from the last election are returning for a rematch.

The NDP’s Lisa Marie Barron won the riding in 2021 with about 29 per cent of the vote, while the Conservatives’ Tamara Kronis and former Green MP Paul Manly both finished within a few percentage points of her.

With the Liberals making gains under leader Mark Carney, Liberal candidate Michelle Corfield could make the Nanaimo-Ladysmith race even more competitive, McDonald said.

“This one’s interesting because it’s a four-way fight,” he said. “And it’s interesting because it does show where the Liberals have gained strength in places they don’t traditionally win. They may sneak a seat here because of the fact that the vote is split so many different ways.”

Another riding to watch on Vancouver Island is May’s Saanich-Gulf Islands riding.

McDonald said May’s support has dropped in the last two federal elections, despite her hold on the seat since 2011, and the Liberals and the Conservatives may see this as an opportunity to pick up a riding.

Richard Johnston, professor emeritus of political science at the University of British Columbia, said what makes that riding unpredictable is the uncertainty about where the Green vote will go.

Johnston said while it may be safe to assume the NDP vote may largely move to the Liberals, the Greens’ support comes from multiple sources because it can be a “parking spot” for “disgruntled voters from all directions.”

“Particularly in the southern Gulf Islands and southern Vancouver Island, there is a degree of ‘not-in-my-backyard’ quality to Green voting,” Johnston said of the possibility that Green votes could go to the Conservatives. “People who live in Green places, typically accessible only by ferry, are often culturally quite conservative (and) their greenness is about preserving what they have.”

Those conversations — about where Green voters would shift their support — are definitely taking place, Johnston added.

“Certainly, I’m getting panicky emails from friends on the Gulf Islands who have been Green for the last 20 years, who are worrying that their neighbours are going over to the Liberals,” he said.

McDonald said the Conservatives’ opportunities in B.C. are likely on Vancouver Island and in the Interior and the North. The Conservatives are targeting two more NDP seats — in Similkameen-South Okanagan-West Kootenay and Skeena-Bulkley Valley.

But he cautioned that some traditionally safe ridings for Conservatives have seen changes in their demographics. He pointed to Kelowna, where the provincial Conservatives won by 40 votes in last year’s B.C. election.

McDonald said the Liberals have increasingly pushed beyond their Vancouver base since 2015, with support in Surrey and Langley.

McDonald said ridings such as Port Moody-Coquitlam (currently held by the NDP), South Surrey-White Rock and Abbotsford-South Langley (which went to the Conservatives in 2021) will likely be among the most competitive races in B.C. as election night unfolds.

Black agreed with those assessments, noting that in each of those ridings there are also wild cards — such as the presence of former B.C. government cabinet minister Mike de Jong, who is running as an independent in Abbotsford-South Langley after being rejected by the Conservatives as a candidate.

“There are people who might say Carney is a bluer form of Liberal,” Black said. “Given his profile, that voter may be more comfortable, maybe holding their nose, voting for a Liberal than with a partisan warrior like (Conservative Leader) Pierre Poilievre, who’s a remarkable communicator but has worn his populism on his sleeve.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 16, 2025.

Chuck Chiang, The Canadian Press