Against the odds at the World Cup, New Zealand is a win away from its first knockout berth

New Zealand head coach Darren Bazeley talks during a news conference on the eve of the team's World Cup soccer match against Belgium, Thursday, June 25, 2026, in Vancouver, British Columbia. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (AP) — There are several World Cup teams ranked higher than New Zealand entering their final group-stage matches without any hope of advancing to the round of 32.

“That’s not us,” New Zealand coach Darren Bazeley said Thursday ahead of his team’s match against Belgium on Friday. “We’re now in a game where we win, we go through.”

That scenario seemed unthinkable when the All Whites, among the lowest-ranked teams in the this year’s World Cup, were drawn into Group G with Belgium, Egypt and Iran.

But thanks to the expanded 48-team format and a group that has veered off script, New Zealand is one win away from advancing out of the group stage for the first time.

“It never works out like you expect it to,” Bazeley said. “Football doesn’t.”

A win against Belgium could push New Zealand into second place in Group G — and therefore the knockout rounds — if Egypt and Iran play to a draw in a match that will be played simultaneously on Friday.

Anything less than a win for New Zealand against Belgium would strip the All Whites of a shot at advancing out of the group stage.

“It’s pretty black and white for us now, which is quite a nice thing,” Bazeley said.

New Zealand, currently 84th in FIFA rankings, has one point from its opening draw against No. 21 Iran. The All Whites led No. 27 Egypt 1-0 at halftime before losing 3-1.

“What we did with Egypt in the first half,” Bazeley said, “I think has shown some people that maybe the rankings don’t necessarily count.”

Getting a win against No. 10-ranked Belgium will not be easy, despite that Belgium drew against both Egypt and Iran. Belgium has one of the sport’s most potent players, veteran midfielder Kevin De Bruyne, and other young stars such as winger Jérémy Doku, who will be making his return after missing the Iran match for the birth of his first child.

“In this game, we need to be flawless,” Bazeley said. “We can’t make a mistake. There are too many world-class players on the pitch.”

In New Zealand’s last World Cup appearance in 2010, the All Whites played to a draw in all of its group-stage matches. They were the only team to go undefeated at that World Cup to not advance to the knockout rounds.

Belgium has not missed a World Cup tournament during New Zealand’s 16-year absence, finishing third overall in 2018.

“The goal was to get out of the group,” Bazeley said. “That’s still the goal. We still believe that’s possible and that we’ve created this opportunity.”

Drew Renner, The Associated Press