Olivia Chow remains firmly in the driver’s seat in the Toronto mayoral race while newcomer Chris Alexander sits in third place with the support of about 10 per cent of decided and leaning voters, a new survey suggests. The survey of 1,000 Torontonians was conducted between Aug. 4 and Aug. 5. by Liaison Strategies, about one week after Alexander officially entered the race. The survey found that Chow had the support of 47 per cent of decided and leaning voters while Brad Bradford was at 40 per cent and Alexander was at 10 per cent. The previous Liaison poll, conducted before Alexander entered the race, had Chow at 49 per cent, Bradford at 41 per cent and “someone else” at 10 per cent. In this latest survey, only three per cent of respondents said that they intended to cast a ballot for “someone else.” “I think for a lot of voters, that’s who they decided to go to now,” Liaison Strategies principal David Valentin told CP24 Breakfast. “Chris Alexander is gobbling into that ‘someone else’ vote.” The latest numbers do point to a closer race than a Forum Research survey released last week which suggested that Chow would have a 15-point lead over Bradford in a three-way ballot that also included Alexander. Valentin said Alexander’s support appears to be coming largely from voters who had been looking for another option, rather than directly peeling support away from Chow or Bradford. “It’s higher than I expected. 10 per cent is double digits, right? So it’s not a bad debut,” he said. “The question for Chris Alexander is… how quickly can you get to 20 if you’re going to get to 20?” Race tightening, but Chow leads Valentin said Chow’s lead has narrowed considerably from earlier this year, when Liaison surveys showed her ahead by more than 20 points. “The race is actually just a tiny bit tighter this month,” he said. “Brad Bradford’s challenge now is, how does he make up this seven per cent gap?” Among all voters, including the undecided, Chow stood at 38 per cent, Bradford at 32 per cent and Alexander at eight per cent. Though twenty per cent of respondents said they remain undecided. Valentin said those undecided voters could become pivotal, arguing many are still waiting to learn more about the candidates and their platforms. Alexander still largely unknown The survey also highlighted that 61 per cent of Torontonians are unfamiliar with Alexander, while 14 per cent view him favourably and 11 per cent unfavourably. Last month, Bradford dismissed Alexander’s candidacy, saying he had “literally” never heard of the former federal cabinet minister before rumours surfaced that he planned to run for mayor. He also said Alexander is “unfit for this office.” Alexander, meanwhile, has described Toronto as “slightly adrift” and says the city needs an outsider to get it back on track. He has previously said he’s “frustrated” that the current administration has not “given Toronto that sense of direction it always had.” Methodology Liaison Strategies surveyed 1,000 Toronto residents by telephone using interactive voice response technology, noting that the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The upcoming election will be held on Oct. 26.
