‘A significant 19-point advantage’: Ford’s PCs expand lead over Crombie’s Liberals, pull ahead in Toronto, Nanos survey shows

Nanos Research has released survey results from nightly Ontario election tracking Feb. 14 to Feb. 16, 2025.

Ontario PC Leader Doug Ford has widened his lead against the second-place Liberals with just 10 days to go until Election Day, a new survey by CTV News’ official pollster Nanos Research shows.

According to the survey of 912 Ontario adults, the PCs now enjoy 46.4 per cent support from decided voters, compared to 27 per cent for the Liberals, 17.9 per cent for the NDP, and 6.7 per cent for the Green Party.

The Tories were up 1.2 points from the previous day while the Liberals were down 2.5 points. Support for the NDP was mostly unchanged.

It’s the largest level of support that Ford has had among decided voters since Nanos Research began nightly tracking for CTV News on Feb. 6 (45.9).

“The Progressive Conservative Party has opened up a significant 19-point advantage over the Ontario Liberals, buoyed by improved support in the City of Toronto,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, said in analysis accompanying the survey, which was released Monday.

“Premier Doug Ford continues to maintain a comfortable lead as the preferred choice for Premier among Ontarians.”

About 40.6 per cent of respondents said Ford was their top choice for premier, while 24.3 per cent said they preferred Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie. About 15.2 per cent of respondents said they would pick NDP Leader Marit Stiles to lead the province and about 7.4 per cent selected Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner.

Among decided and undecided voters, about 41.8 per cent said they would vote PC, 24.4 per cent said the would vote Liberal, 16.1 per cent said they would vote NDP, 1.8 per cent said “other,” and 9.9 per cent remain “undecided.”

Ford has pulled ahead in Toronto after previous nightly tracking showed a tight race between the PCs in the Liberals in the provincial capital.

About 37.4 per cent of Toronto respondents said they would vote for the Progressive Conservatives in the upcoming election, compared to 30.5 per cent for the Liberals, 24.3 per cent for the NDP, and 6.9 per cent for the Green Party.

The latest survey interviewed Ontarians between Feb. 14 and Feb. 16 and is considered accurate plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.