Nanos ballot tracking: Conservatives 31, NDP 31, Liberals 27

Voter preference is split evenly between the NDP and the Conservatives, a new Nanos survey suggests.

The Tories and the New Democrats were each the top choice of 31 per cent of survey respondents, while Justin Trudeau’s Liberals weren’t far behind at 27 per cent. The Green Party ranked fourth with six per cent.

To get this data, Nanos asked 1,000 people the following question in a random telephone survey: “For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences?”

The result comes is based on a four-week rolling average from the survey and uses only the number one choice of each respondent. The data includes a total of 836 responses after excluding those who were undecided at the time of the poll. (More methodology notes below in story.)

"As you know, every week of the year Nanos keeps the political pulse on the federal scene. Now that we are approaching the federal election we will be making public our weekly tracking numbers," Nik Nanos, chairman of Nanos Research, writes this week. "Factoring ballot support and preferences for prime minister we are still in a competitive environment for the major parties."

 

The latest tracking shows the NDP and the Conservatives tied, plus both party leaders are on equal footing when it comes to who is the preferred prime minister.

Posted by CTV News on Thursday, July 23, 2015

Mulcair vs. Harper

According to this week’s numbers, NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Prime Minister Stephen Harper are also on equal footing when it comes to the question of preferred prime minister. Like their parties, the two are split evenly, with 29 per cent of respondents listing each leader as their top choice.

Coming in with a 12-month low was Trudeau, who received 23 per cent in the poll, while 13 per cent of respondents were undecided.

And when it comes to who people think has the qualities of a good leader, Mulcair holds the edge with 58 per cent of respondents answering positively, compared to 53 per cent for Harper and 45 per cent for Trudeau.

An NDP edge in some areas

The NDP are out ahead when it comes to accessible voters, who are defined as voters who say they would consider voting for a certain party. About 53 per cent of those polled said they would consider voting for the NDP, which is 10 points higher than the 43 per cent who said they would consider voting Conservative.

In that category, the Liberals also have a slight edge over the Tories, with 44 per cent of people saying they would consider voting for Trudeau’s party. For comparison, 32 per cent said they would consider voting for the Bloc Quebecois, and 25 per cent said they would consider going Green.

When it comes to the Nanos Party Power Index – "a basket of political goods” made up of voter preferences, accessible voters, preferred prime minister views and an evaluation of the leaders – the NDP also sits on top.

For the past eight weeks now, Mulcair’s party has registered the highest on the index. The New Democrats sit at 55 points out of a possible 100, while the Conservatives and Liberals sit at 51 and 50 points, respectively.

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Methodology

The Nanos Party Power Index comprises a basket of political goods that includes ballot preferences, accessible voters, preferred PM views and evaluations of the leaders. It is modeled similar to a standard confidence index. The results are based on a four-week rolling average of opinion solicited through a random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians in the period ending July 17, 2015. It is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.