The week-over-week tracking remained stable in the latest wave of the Nanos Party Power Index released Feb. 24, but it’s in Quebec where the accessible voter numbers show us an interesting trend.
Latest Power Index numbers:
- Liberals score 57 points out 100, unchanged from last week
- Conservatives score 53 points, down one point from last week
- NDP scores 48 points, unchanged from last week
BQ on a high
The interesting number this week is in Quebec, where 37 per cent of Quebecers said they would consider voting for the Bloc Quebecois.
That’s a new 12-month high in accessible voters for the party.
A look at how the Bloc’s support has fared since July:
Volatility
When a party’s accessible voter numbers rise, it usually converts into popular support.
It’s considered a leading indicator and significant because Quebec will make-or-break the Conservatives, the Liberals and the NDP in the next federal election.
While changes in voter support numbers are incremental outside of Quebec, the rise in support for the BQ shows how volatile the province of Quebec remains.
The preferred Prime Minister measure, meanwhile, remains tight, with Harper the preference of 33 per cent of Canadians followed by Justin Trudeau at 31 per cent, Thomas Mulcair at 16 per cent, while four per prefer Elizabeth May and 14 per cent were unsure.
The Nanos Party Power Index methodology comprises a basket of political goods that includes ballot preferences, accessible voters, preferred PM views and evaluations of the leaders. It is modeled similar to a standard confidence index. It is a random telephone survey conducted with live agents, reaching out to Canadians through a land- and cell-line dual frame sample.
