Nanos survey: Trudeau and Harper top choices as preferred PM
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair
Published Monday, October 12, 2015 2:01PM EDT
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper are Canadians' top choices as preferred prime minister, nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail suggests.
The latest numbers, released on Oct. 12, show:
- 32.3 per cent of respondents said Trudeau was their preferred prime minister
- 28.1 per cent of respondents preferred Harper
- 20.5 per cent preferred NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair
- 6.4 per cent preferred Green Party Leader Elizabeth May
- 10.3 per cent were unsure
Respondents were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"
Of those who chose Harper as their preferred prime minister, 41 per cent said they had no second choice. Of those who preferred Trudeau, 50 per cent said Mulcair would be their second choice, and of those who chose Mulcair first, 57 per cent said they would pick Trudeau second.
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Nanos Party Power Index
On the Nanos Party Power Index, which is a composite of several measures including ballot preferences, prime minister preferences and leader impressions, the Liberals scored 56.1 points out of a possible 100, the NDP scored 50.6 points, and the Conservatives scored 47.5 points.
The Green Party scored 31.4 points and, in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois scored 31.5 points.
The index measures each party's brand strength.
To do this, the views of 1,200 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party, in which a 0 means the party has no brand strength and a 100 means the party has maximum brand strength.
Full survey at Nanos Research
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