Naheed Nenshi: The threat to our nation is very real

Prime Minister Mark Carney, right, signs a memorandum of understanding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in Calgary on Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

Naheed K. Nenshi served three terms as mayor of Calgary, is currently leader of the Alberta New Democrats and is a contributing columnist for CTVNews.ca.

A question I keep hearing from folks across Canada is pretty simple: “What the heck is going on in Alberta?” It’s a fair question. The Alberta government, whether through incompetence or malice, is dismantling public services, trampling on human rights, and threatening the very future of the country.

Two factors in particular -- the rise of Alberta separatism and the U.S. invasion of Venezuela with its potential impact on the Canadian energy sector -- have thrown this into stark relief. While Premier Danielle Smith’s mismanagement of, well, everything is exceptionally troubling, there is also an opportunity for all of us to address some long-standing issues and build a better Canada for us all.

While most commentators believe that there’s no way the separatist side will win a referendum (most polls show that support for separatism in Alberta remains well below 30 per cent) the threat to our nation is very real. Smith, by coddling this extreme faction of her base, has lost control. The United Conservatives have become a separatist party, much to the surprise of many who voted for them and many of her own caucus members.

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Indeed, after a judge ruled that a referendum on separatism in Alberta would be unconstitutional as written, the government changed the law to allow for one anyway, and to make it easier to force a referendum. (Interestingly, to avoid other referendum petitions, they also increased the cost for future initiatives from $500 to $25,000. The separatists get the old price).

A hard trick to pull off

Smith’s strategy here has been extremely clear for a long time: use the threat of separatism (which she herself has strongly encouraged) to extract concessions from the federal government, then paint herself as Captain Canada and the one who saved the nation during a referendum. Not only is this extraordinarily cynical, but it would be a hard trick to pull off, even for the most brilliant of politicians. Citizens are smarter than most politicians give them credit for, and they will see right through this.

Nonetheless, there are many problems here that should concern all Canadians.

First is the extraordinary danger inherent in this ploy. Referenda are very difficult to predict. Canadians in 1995 certainly didn’t think we would come within a whisker of losing the country.

I was in the room when then U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron announced his plans for a Brexit referendum, assuring those present that it would never pass, but that it would give him leverage to negotiate a better deal with Brussels. What Cameron didn’t say that day is that he also felt that a referendum was a necessary tactic to avoid a split in his conservative movement so that he could stay in power. Smith admitted as much on her radio show this summer when she responded to a question about why she was pandering to separatists by saying that if she didn’t, she would lose the next election.

We know what happens next. History is clear. Montreal lost over 300 head offices when Quebec separation became an ascendant political movement, and many would argue that the province of Quebec has seen 50 years of economic malaise ever since. The U.K. economy still has not recovered from the turmoil of Brexit a decade later.

These are the “head” arguments, and they are irrefutable. Alberta separation is a recipe for economic ruin, and a landlocked nation that will have to negotiate access to world markets will be beholden to other countries, and ironically far less independent as a result.

However, in my opinion, the “heart” arguments are far more compelling. This past summer, the Alberta government conducted a series of farcical town halls to gauge support for a number of separatist ideas. The culmination of these included a famous moment when the premier’s executive director, who was inexplicably moderating the panels, suggested that a 17-year-old student be spanked because he dared to disagree with the government. These meetings were, to be charitable, considerably more heat than light.

Albertans are proud Canadians

My caucus colleagues and I also spent the summer talking to Albertans in something we called the Better Together Summer. We knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors, attended rodeos and parades and music festivals, and hung out in dog parks. Without spending untold millions of government money, we also attracted nearly as many citizens to our series of 10 town halls across the province as the government did to theirs. Citizens were very clear: Albertans are, have always been, and always will be proud Canadians.

They recognize challenges with our federation but they also know all this separatist talk is a distraction from the things they truly care about: life being so expensive and hard to manage, jobs disappearing, and public services like health care and education not being there when people need them.

They reminded us that Albertans are bold, audacious, and optimistic at our core. That a government that relies on keeping people angry all the time is fundamentally un-Albertan.

But barring an early election call or a few more government members leaving or being recalled, it seems the deck is stacked for an Alberta separation referendum in 2026. The actions of a weak and desperate government -- one with the smallest majority in Alberta history, that has already had two floor-crossers and with half its caucus facing recall petitions -- are putting our nation at risk.

It’s time for Canada, politicians and citizens alike, to act. Not by appeasing and emboldening Danielle Smith, but by showing Albertans and all Canadians that we can make this great country work better for all of us.