Conservative caucus meets in Ottawa as poll numbers slump and Trump's threats loom

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre addresses his caucus on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Spencer Colby

OTTAWA — As political parties gear up for a federal election campaign that could begin as soon as March 10, the Conservatives appear focused on the man they believe they’ll be running against: Mark Carney.

On their way into a caucus meeting in Ottawa on Friday morning, Conservative MPs brushed off concerns about the party’s standing in the polls and stayed on message about the man they’ve branded as “carbon tax Carney.”

“Over the last two days, Mark Carney again admitted his own lie about not wanting to impose a carbon tax. In fact, he says he’s changing the carbon tax,” said deputy leader Melissa Lantsman.

Carney, the apparent front-runner in the race to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader on March 9, has pledged to end the consumer carbon price and replace it with a climate plan that offers incentives to consumers while forcing big polluters to pay “their fair share.”

Lantsman said there’s a “particular insanity” to forcing steel companies to pay more at a time when they’re being threatened with U.S. tariffs.

For more than 18 months, the Conservatives have held double-digit leads in national polls over a Liberal party weighed down by Trudeau’s personal unpopularity.

But things have been shifting lately. A Leger poll this week suggests that a Liberal party led by Carney would be in a dead heat with the Tories, with 37 per cent support.

For over a year, Conservative attacks have focused on the Liberals' consumer carbon price, with a tag line of “axe the tax” adorning the podiums at nearly all of leader Pierre Poilievre’s speeches, news conferences and rallies.

With Trudeau out of the picture and the leading Liberal leadership candidates pledging to do away with the carbon price, the Conservatives have largely shelved that slogan in favour of a new one: “Canada First.”

The caucus met for the first time on Friday since December, returning to a much different political landscape than the one they left at the holiday break.

Parliament has been on pause since Jan. 6, the day Trudeau announced his plans to step down and triggered a leadership race.

Two weeks later, Donald Trump took over the White House while pledging to impose sweeping tariffs on imports of Canadian goods.

Trump has dominated headlines ever since, as his tariff threats and their deadlines continue to shift.

After saying the tariffs were a response to Canada’s failure to stop migrants and illegal drugs from crossing the border into the U.S., Trump’s executive order delaying the levies said he’s seeking an economic deal with Canada.

He’s accused Canada of being unfair on trade and made the false claim that the U.S. is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to subsidize Canada.

He also has said repeatedly that Canada can avoid the tariffs altogether if it becomes the “51st state.”

But the Conservatives still say the carbon tax trumps the threat of U.S. tariffs as the main ballot box question in the election.

Conservative ethics critic Michael Barrett said Friday that the election will be about “putting Canadians first — and nothing puts Canadians first like axing the carbon tax.”

Poilievre, who did not speak to reporters Friday, has said he would hit the U.S. with retaliatory tariffs if he were in power. He called on the Liberals to send the military to secure the border with the U.S. in response to Trump’s concerns.

He’s also made recent announcements about redirecting foreign aid funding to build an Arctic military base and imposing mandatory life sentences on people convicted of trafficking more than 40 mg of fentanyl.

Conservative House leader Andrew Scheer — the only other Tory MP who stopped to speak with reporters on Friday — said the Conservatives will persuade voters that they are best positioned to deal with Trump by “putting Canada first.”

“The Carney Liberal approach has made Canada more vulnerable and more dependent,” he said.

Poilievre is set to host a “Canada First” rally in Ottawa on Saturday.

The Conservatives have sent invitations widely via automated phone calls and text messages to Ottawa-area phone numbers, urging people to come wearing red and white in honour of Flag Day.

Sarah Ritchie, The Canadian Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 14, 2025.