‘The math doesn’t add up’: Former environment minister says 2030 emissions targets now not possible

Liberal MP Steven Guilbeault explains why he resigned from cabinet but stayed in the Liberal caucus, his concerns over climate policy and the Alberta pipeline.

Former environment minister Steven Guilbeault, who resigned last week from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cabinet over a “profound” disagreement in climate policy, says it will now be “impossible” for the federal government to reach its 2030 emissions targets in the wake of the energy deal with Alberta.

“I think that my government needs to be honest with Canadians,” Guilbeault said in an interview with CTV Power Play with Vassy Kapelos on Wednesday.

“With the rollbacks that we’ve seen over the past few months on different climate change measures that have been adopted over the years by me and some my predecessors, it is impossible to see how we achieve our 2030 targets.”

Last week, Guilbeault resigned as Canadian Identity and Culture Minister hours after Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith unveiled a new memorandum of understanding (MOU), which lays the groundwork for strengthened cooperation on major energy projects, including a new pipeline and carbon capture.

In the MOU, Alberta has agreed to negotiate an industrial carbon pricing agreement by April 2026 that would implement an industrial carbon price with a floor of $130 per tonne.

In return, the federal Liberals have agreed to suspend the clean electricity regulations in the province, not implement the oil and gas emissions cap, and if required, make an exemption to the federal tanker ban.

Speaking to Kapelos, Guilbeault said Alberta’s increase to its industrial carbon pricing is not enough to mitigate the rollback of other climate policies and referenced an Environment Canada estimate that says the industrial carbon tax would need to be $400 per tonne to make up for the suspension of clean electricity regulations.

“The math doesn’t add up,” he said.

Guilbeault served as environment and climate change minister from 2021 to 2025 and admits that during his tenure, he knew it would be “challenging” to meet emissions targets, but he now says “it’s impossible.”

“We need to tell Canadians it won’t work. We won’t get there,” he added.

Guilbeault also told Kapelos he believes Canada’s goal to hit net-zero emissions by 2050 is in jeopardy, saying “it is very hard for me to see how we get there with what has been announced so far.”

Under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, the federal government committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40-45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, 45 to 50 per cent by 2035 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Along with the measures in the MOU, Carney has also previously eliminated the controversial consumer carbon tax and paused its 2026 electric vehicle mandate, which originally required 20 per cent of new light-duty vehicles sales to be zero-emission.

Despite those changes, Environment and Climate Change Minister Julie Dabrusin insisted the federal government is not rolling back its climate policy, in an interview with CTV Question Period last Sunday.

“I’ll disagree with the characterization that we’re rolling things back when we’ve actually committed to strengthening the industrial carbon price, strengthening methane regulations, extending the methane regulations to landfills and also to building out infrastructure that, in the long term, does help us to move towards a cleaner electricity grid,” Dabrusin said.

‘Profound disagreement’ with Carney

The day before his resignation from cabinet, there was a report that Guilbeault planned to stay in Carney’s inner circle despite the energy deal with Alberta.

Asked by Kapelos what changed in less than 24 hours, Guilbeault said he voiced his “strong opposition” when he first saw the draft agreement of the MOU and hoped changes would be made.

“The changes that were made were largely cosmetic and didn’t change the nature of the agreement. I felt, and I feel we left a lot on the table for not getting a lot in return,” he said, which ultimately led to his “tough decision” to step down.

When asked why he wants to remain in Liberal caucus, Guilbeault acknowledged his “profound disagreement” with Carney and his current climate policies, but still thinks he is “the best person to serve Canadians and to guide us through those difficult times.”

Pressed on why he would hurt Carney politically if he thinks he is the best person to lead the country, Guilbeault said he had to stand by his beliefs.

“I think I’ve been very respectful of the prime minister and the government, but I felt that I owed it to him, to my colleagues and to my constituents, to be true to myself and to be able to look myself in the mirror,” he said.

Guilbeault says while he plans to stay as a member of Liberal caucus, he has yet to make a decision on whether he will run for re-election.

“The dust is still settling since my decision of last week, but I’m definitely there for the coming months,” he said.

‘Bridge had been burned’ with Green Party Leader

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May voted to support the Carney government on its federal budget last month, saying at the time that she did so after Carney committed to meeting Canada’s Paris climate targets.

On Wednesday, Guilbeault confirmed to CTV Power Play that he was one of the people assigned to work with May to get her support and assured her that tax credits for enhanced oil recovery would not be in the budget or added to it afterwards.

While the federal budget says enhanced oil recovery would not be eligible for a federal subsidy, the deal with Alberta — signed 10 days after May voted in favour of the federal budget — commits Canada to extending federal tax credits to encourage large-scale CCUS investments, including the Pathways Alliance project “and enhanced oil recovery to provide the certainty needed to attract large additional sources of domestic and foreign capital.”

“(May) supported us in good faith. I don’t think she will support us moving forward. I think that bridge has been burned,” Guilbeault said.

Speaking to The Canadian Press this week, May called her budget vote a “mistake” and said it won’t happen again.

You can watch the full interview with Liberal-Quebec MP Steven Guilbeault at the top of this article.

With files from CTV News’ Rachel Aiello and The Canadian Press