Uncertainty keeping Ottawa housing market ‘cautious and balanced’: Real estate agent

To help explain what the market is facing and the impact of tariffs on home sales we bring Jason Pilon with the Pilon Group.

An Ottawa real estate agent says tariffs and interest rates are shaping the capital’s current housing market.

Jason Pilon with the Pilon Group told CTV Morning Live Wednesday the market is “cautious and balanced” right now, summarizing the Ottawa Real Estate Board’s (OREB) latest report:

• Sales are down in March compared to the same month last year.
• Condo prices are up about four per cent. Townhomes and single-family homes are up, slightly.

According to the OREB’s report, a total of 1,103 units were sold in March 2025, representing a 6.2 per cent decline form March 2024. Also, for the month of March, home sales were 24 per cent below the five-year average and 19.3 per cent below the 10-year average.

Pilon notes that the biggest change since last year is in inventory levels.

“Inventory was a shocker. Inventory levels currently in March this year (are) up 60 per cent over what they were last year,” he said.

He explains the why as follows:

“I think you have a lot of sellers who were trying to time things. Last year, the market didn’t like the way the rates were,” he says noting that buyers were waiting for the interest rates to come down.

He adds that buyers are being cautious right now, which is what he things the right thing to do.

“And they’re taking their time,” he added. “So, you have listing taking a little bit longer to sell, (and) more listings coming on. So, things are just kind of slowing a little bit.”

Pilon says lifestyle changes are also among the factors shaping the current market.

The Bank of Canada’s latest rate announcement to hold the key interest rate at 2.75 per cent on Wednesday, and the tariff war are two important factors to keep an eye on, he says. Pilon says these two factors are currently shifting people’s focus from the market.

“I think the rates right now for buyers are fantastic,” he said.

“From a tariff standpoint, it will be interesting to see how this (the market) plays out next year. I think because the resale market will definitely benefit if that’s what happens. If the cost for builders starts to come up with respect to materials and cost, they’re going to have to move that on to the consumer.”

When it comes to materials, such as lumber, and costs to build new homes, Concordia University economics professor Moshe Lander told CTV News Ottawa Wednesday “the outcome will be strongly influenced by how much tariffs are ultimately applied and for how long.”

“It is unclear what effect tariffs will have on the Canadian lumber industry. On the one hand, it is possible that the exportable lumber will get stuck in Canada and push down domestic prices, but it is also possible that the lumber industry will scale back production in response to the tariffs and push up domestic prices,” Lander explained.

The Bank of Canada left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Wednesday as it waits to get a clearer picture of how global trade uncertainty is going to impact the Canadian economy. It comes following seven consecutive cuts since June, 2024.

The central bank raises the policy rate when central bankers fear inflation could accelerate and lower it when policymakers want to stimulate growth in the economy.

But both scenarios are in play right now amid what Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem called “considerable uncertainty” tied to the United States’ global tariff campaign.

With files from The Canadian Press