Here’s how Quebec could swing the election: ridings to watch

From left to right: Liberal leader Mark Carney, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet are looking to make gains in Quebec.

There are 78 seats up for grabs in Quebec in the federal election, but under a dozen of them look likely to swing on election day on April 28.

*All numbers were updated on April 18, 2025.

As of Friday evening, the poll analyst site 338Canada.com has the Liberals under Mark Carney winning 43, Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois winning 22, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives at 12 and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP with one seat.

In 2021, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won 34 seats (one fewer than 2019); Blanchet’s Bloc, 33 (one fewer); Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives won 10 (same as 2019), and the NDP’s Alexandre Boulerice held the Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie seat.

A swing for the Liberals would be the first major gain for a party in the province since 2019, when the Bloc went from 10 to 32 seats, mostly at the expense of the NDP, which went from 16 to 1.

Here is the Quebec seat count for the past 20 years:

Canada338 has the Liberals “safe” in 32 seats, “likely” in seven, “leaning” in one, and winning a “toss-up,” in three.

The Bloc are “safe” in one, “likely” in eight, “leaning” in seven, and “toss up” winners in six.

The Conservatives can count on nine “safe” ridings, one “likely”, and two “leaning,” while the NDP have one “safe” seat.

Here are the nine ridings that are listed as “toss-ups” on the site:

North Shore and beyond

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

Liberal candidate and first woman elected grand chief of the Quebec’s Cree Nation Mandy Gull-Masty is leading (34 per cent voter intention) ahead of Bloc incumbent Sylvie Bérubé (33 per cent) in the massive riding encompassing over 850,000 square kilometres in Quebec’s north.

Bérubé won the seat from the NDP’s Roméo Saganash, who poached the seat from the Bloc in 2011 during the NDP’s orange wave.

The riding is one of many Quebec Oreos that went baby blue-orange-baby blue (Bloc-NDP-Bloc).

Odds of winning: Liberals, 55 per cent.

Berthier—Maskinongé

In the only three-horse race in the province, Liberal Stéphane Bilodeau (27 per cent voter intention) and NDP Ruth Ellen Brosseau (28 per cent voter intention) are looking to take incumbent Yves Perron’s (30 per cent voter intention) Bloc seat.

The historical trend of the riding on the North Shore west of Trois-Rivières follows the Bloc-NDP-Bloc Quebec Oreo.

Odds of winning: Bloc, 54 per cent.

Les Pays-d’en-Haut

Whoever wins in the riding will be the first in its history, as it was created in 2023 to accommodate the population growth in the Laurentians and Lanaudière regions.

Polls have a dead heat of 38 per cent in vote projection between Liberal Timothy Watchorn and Bloc Arian Charbonneau.

Odds of winning: Liberal, 53 per cent.

Repentigny

Liberal Pierre Richard Thomas and Bloc Patrick Bonin are tied at 41 per cent of the voter intention in the Bloc stronghold represented by Monique Pauzé since 2015.

The 73-year-old Pauzé said in 2024 that she would not be seeking another term.

Since its creation in 1997, the Bloc has won every election except for the NDP orange wave of 2011.

Odds of winning: Bloc, 52 per cent.

Terrebonne

Bloc incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné won her first election in 2021 for the party that has held the seat northeast of Montreal since 1993. Polls show her up by two percentage points of the vote on Liberal Tatiana Auguste (40-38).

Provincially, the Parti Québécois won the seat back in a byelection from the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) in March.

Odds of winning: Bloc, 60 per cent.

Trois-Rivières

Liberal Caroline Desrochers is leading (32 per cent) Bloc candidate René Villemure (31 per cent) in Trois-Rivières and hopes to turn the riding red for the first time since 1984.

The riding has been represented by Liberal, Progressive Conservative, Bloc and NDP candidates since its creation.

Odds of winning: Liberal, 57 per cent.

Montreal’s South Shore

La Prairie—Atateken

The newly created seat on Montreal’s South Shore combines the former Brossard-La Prairie and Châteauguay—Saint-Constant ridings.

Liberal Jacques Ramsay is leading with 40 per cent of the vote projection, up on Bloc incumbent Alain Therrien (38 per cent).

Ramsay is a former Quebec coroner who worked on the inquiry into COVID-19 deaths in long-term care facilities.

The previous editions of the riding bounced between the Bloc (2019-25 and 1993-1997), Liberals (2015-2019 and 1968-1984) and Progressive Conservatives (1867-1887, 1891-1896 and 1984-1993).

Odds of winning: Liberal, 65 per cent

Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères

Bloc incumbent Xavier Barsalou-Duval remains ahead with 40 per cent of vote intention, but Liberal Laurent de Casanove (38 per cent) is hoping to become the first candidate not of the baby blue shade to represent the region southeast of Montreal.

Barsalou-Duval has represented the riding since it was created in 2015.

Odds of winning: Bloc, 62 per cent.

Saint-Jean

Bloc incumbent Christine Normandin remains ahead with 38 per cent of the projected vote, but Liberal Patrick Agbokou (35 per cent) is looking to take the seat back for the party that took it from the NDP in 205. Normandin won it back for the Bloc in 2019.

The riding that stretches along the Richelieu River south of Montreal to the border was created in 1966 and was held by the Bloc from 1993 to 2011.

Odds of winning: Bloc, 68 per cent.