Could a blood test determine how much longer you'll live?

A new study is raising the question: If you could take a blood test that would predict your mortality, would you?

Researchers in the Netherlands and Germany have identified a set of 14 biomarkers in human blood that could predict the risk of death in individuals within five to 10 years.

To arrive at the findings, scientists at the Leiden University Medical Center (LUMC) and the Max Planck Institute for Biology of Ageing examined the blood of 44,168 people – aged between 18 and 109 and of European descent – to identify biomarkers that are indicative of a person’s remaining lifespan. The majority of the participants in the study were over 60 years old.

Using the 14 biomarkers, the researchers developed a “score” to evaluate an individual’s risk of death within five to 10 years. In the follow-up, 5,512 people involved in the study died.

The biomarkers identified in the study are known to be involved in various processes such as fluid balance, the breakdown of glucose, fatty acid metabolism and inflammation.

“If we can identify vulnerable elderly people with this blood-based measurement, then the next step is to anticipate this vulnerability,” said Eline Slagboom, senior author of the study, in a news release.

Predicting an individual’s death sounds grim, but as Slagboom explains, doctors could use it to help alter an individual’s lifestyle for the better or determine drug treatments. 

“One example would be an adapted diet for someone who runs a high risk of losing muscle mass rapidly during a hospital stay,” said Slagboom. “It is also conceivable that such a measurement could be used to investigate whether a new drug would have a favourable or unfavourable effect on the risk of dying.” 

The study was the largest of its kind and involved a large sample of individuals. However, Slagboom warns there’s still more research that needs to be done.

“The result of the measurement currently says something about the general state of health of the more than 44,000 people in our study,” she said. “That’s all well and good, but we can’t say anything yet about the risk of a specific condition or the risk for an individual.”

The research was published in Nature Communications.