What’s the outlook for this respiratory virus season? Here’s what experts say

While the season looks like it could be "normal" this year, Dawn Bowdish, a respiratory health expert in Hamilton, Ont., has some concerns.

An immunologist says Canada could follow in the footsteps of the Southern Hemisphere and see a surge in influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and COVID-19 cases.

However, Dawn Bowdish, who specializes in respiratory infections and vaccinations, cautions that it may be too early to forecast the upcoming cold and flu season.

Bowdish said she based her outlook on data from the Southern Hemisphere because the region tends to finish its cold and flu season around the time it begins in Canada. Canada’s respiratory virus season tends to occur from November to April, she added, though it varies by province.

“Based on predictions from the Southern Hemisphere, they had a considerable amount of all three viruses – influenza, RSV and COVID," Bowdish, a professor in the department of medicine at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ont., said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca on Tuesday. “So it’s reasonable to assume that that may also happen in Canada this year.”

Western Australia has seen its worst flu season since the country’s federal health department began keeping records in 2001, with more than 30,000 cases reported this year, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reported on Tuesday.

The spike in flu and COVID-19 cases has overwhelmed several major hospitals in the Australian state of Queensland, causing them to pause elective surgeries for a few days, the ABC reported in July. Although the surgeries aren’t considered emergencies, Queensland state leaders called the situation “startling,” the Australian news outlet reported.

“It’s always difficult to make predictions, but some things are percolating along exactly as we planned,” Bowdish said about respiratory viruses in Canada. She said influenza and RSV rates are “extremely low” as expected so far.

Flu and RSV tend to peak later during Canada’s respiratory virus season, such as in January, February or March, Bowdish said.

However, it’s possible that Canada could be seeing the start of a COVID-19 wave because of recent trends in the last few weeks, Bowdish said.

COVID-19 began spiking again based on federal data published last week, though positive tests and outbreaks were trending down in Canada’s latest respiratory virus surveillance report.

Still, nearly all lab-confirmed respiratory viral outbreaks, at 99 per cent, reported in recent weeks have been connected to COVID-19, according to the surveillance report.

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at Toronto General Hospital, is also expecting normal trends in Canada.

“Between now and the end of November, we’re going to see a rise in COVID, influenza, and RSV,” Bogoch said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca on Monday. “This is typical of a Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.”

Bogoch predicts the number of infections will worsen in January before declining in early spring.

“We often look to the Southern Hemisphere to look at how their season fared, and that’s an imperfect prediction as to what our season might look like,” he added.

Because of the high rates of respiratory virus infections in some parts of the world, Bowdish recommends vaccinations.

“So my hope is that if people start getting vaccinated now, we’ll mitigate that wave,” she said. “We often see increases in infections over the holidays because obviously people mix and share their germs.

“So now is the time to prepare, not panic.”