‘I think we could see an upset’: Two federal party leaders face uncertain future in battleground B.C.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh speaks during a campaign stop in Edmonton, on Wednesday, April 23, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

With five days left in the federal election campaign, British Columbia ridings that were long safe appear to suddenly be up for grabs, including those held by the leaders of the NDP and the Green Party.

Michael Prince, a political scientist at the University of Victoria, said Jagmeet Singh’s riding of Burnaby Central isn’t the only NDP stronghold at risk this year.

“I think the future of the NDP is at stake here,” Prince said.

Before dissolution, there was a three-way split in B.C. – 14 Liberal seats, 14 Conservative, 12 NDP, plus one Green – but polls suggest the NDP may be in trouble heading into Monday’s vote.

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UBC political scientist Stewart Prest said many voters see this as a high-stakes election and want to back one of the two frontrunners, Liberal or Conservative.

“It seems like voters on that centre-left side of the political spectrum are really congregating on the Liberals and listening to and resonating with the Liberal message, particularly regarding the threat to Canada from the United States in general and Donald Trump in particular,” Prest said.

The future of Green Party Co-Leader Elizabeth May also hangs in the balance in B.C., Prince suggested.

“She’s in the fight of her life. I think we could see an upset there,” he said. “There may be a quiet sense of she’s done well, people respect her, they admire (her) as a leader but her time is done.”

May was the Greens’ first elected MP in 2011. Now, her Saanich-Gulf Islands riding is considered a toss-up, with pollsters identifying only a slim lead for May over Conservative Cathie Ounsted.

“If (May) loses, she’ll say she got squeezed out,” said Prince. “That people’s attention got shifted off climate action and core environmental key issues, and it came down to who’s best to handle Trump.”

Pundits predict a big last-minute push in multiple B.C. ridings now seen as winnable by parties who are generally written off.

“B.C. is always a crucial battleground, and given the way it is divided so evenly between the two frontrunner parties, I think we’re going to see substantial efforts here in the last week to pull out the stops,” Prest said. “Particularly that vote-rich Lower Mainland, Vancouver area.”