Canadians feel this federal election ‘more important’ than in the past, primarily driven by leader choice: Nanos survey

Pollster Nik Nanos discusses the latest polling numbers, which shows growing support for Mark Carney as the country’s leader.

An overwhelming majority of Canadians believe that the current federal election, being fought amid continued threats against Canada’s sovereignty from U.S. President Donald Trump, is the most import one yet

According to a new survey from Nanos Research, 86 per cent of Canadians believe this election is more important than past elections. In Ontario and B.C., that sentiment was highest, coming in at close to 90 per cent. In areas where it was lower – Quebec (79.2 per cent) and the Prairies (81.9 per cent) – a large majority still felt that this election is more important than past ones.

The survey, conducted for CTV New and the Globe and Mail, reached out to 1,054 Canadian adults across the country by phone and online from March 29 to April 1. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“Canadians are clearly focused on the election and the choices before them,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research.

Choice of leader is main motivation

The survey also indicated that for most Canadians, voting choice in this election is a matter of who’s at the top of the ticket.

When asked about their voting behavior in the next federal election, nearly 39 per cent of respondents said they will mainly be voting for a leader. Close to 24 per cent of respondents said they will mainly be voting for a party, while nearly 15 per cent of respondents said they will be voting based on specific policy.

Around 13 per cent of respondents said they would either be voting for or against a particular leader or party when they cast their ballot. Just under six per cent said that their vote will be motivated by the choice of local candidates.

The findings come as Canadians prepare to vote in an election crafted by an extraordinary set of circumstances, especially when it comes to the choice of leaders.

Carney, who became prime minister in a Liberal leadership contest just weeks ago, has never held elected office, but brings a lengthy resume in international monetary policy at a time when the world economy is seeing seismic shifts caused by Trump’s tariffs.

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Meanwhile, Poilievre is a seasoned politician whose party looked like it was cruising toward an easy election win until former prime minister Justin Trudeau stepped aside and Donald Trump began threatening Canada’s sovereignty.

At the same time, support has collapsed for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP and Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois.

The timing of the election means that Canadians will be deciding who can best guide Canada through the economic storm Trump has brought with him.

Recent polling done for CTV News and the Globe and Mail by Nanos shows that Carney leads Poilievre by around 20 points when it comes to leader preference.

Canadians want online voting, but not voting penalties

In addition to questions about voting behaviour, the survey also asked Canadians what they think when it comes to how elections are run.

Specifically, it found that around 58 per cent either support or somewhat support allowing Canadians to vote online, compared to 36 per cent who either oppose or somewhat oppose it. Five per cent said they weren’t sure.

When it comes to the idea of handing out fines equivalent to parking tickets to those who don’t vote, a majority (51 per) cent were opposed or somewhat opposed, while 44 per cent supported or somewhat supported the idea. Five per cent said they weren’t sure on that question either.

Fines have been floated in the past as a way to drive up voter turnout and some countries, such as Australia, have adopted the measure.