Alberta Premier Smith declares tariff victory, experts say Canada not out of the woods

Canada was not on Donald Trump's board of reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, leaving local experts confused on what it means for Canada. Chelan Skulski reports.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith called the most recent tariff announcement a win, though some experts say it’s too soon to start celebrating.

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On Wednesday afternoon, U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on countries around the world – though Canada was notably not one of them.

“It appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations,” Smith said in a statement. “It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.

“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.”

Previous Trump tariffs on Canadian cars, steel and aluminum are still in place. Goods that are not compliant with the current Canada-U.S.-Mexico Trade Agreement will be subject to 25-per-cent tariffs, while non-compliant energy and potash will be tariffed at 10 per cent.

It’s unclear if those tariffs will be cumulative or what Canada needs to do to have them removed.

• Canada to fight Trump tariffs with ‘purpose’ and ‘force,’ Carney says. Live updates here

Despite that, Smith said it seemed “the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us,” while praising “diplomacy and persuasion” as having been the most effective tool (though it’s also unclear at this time why Canada has been exempt from the latest tariff round).

Trade analyst Carlo Dade, director of international policy at the University of Calgary, said there are far too many questions unanswered to take a victory lap.

That includes what the U.S. administration actually wants out of them, with Dade saying Wednesday’s tariffs just don’t make any sense.

“I’ve been studying the development of tariff policy with the ‘America first’ movement … and this comes as a bit of surprise - not in what the Americans are doing, but in how they’re doing it,” Dade said.

“The sheer incompetence and stupidity goes beyond anything I expected from following this over the past five years.”

“This is not a simple case of, ‘You sell more to us than you buy’, or you wouldn’t have Australia and the U.K. on the list,” he continued. “It’s not just a case of fentanyl, or you wouldn’t have all these other countries on the list.”

Mark Parsons, chief economist at ATB Financial, agrees that it’s too early to declare a victory.

“We had an announcement, but it’s unclear to me if Trump is going to use this as an opening position for negotiation to get concessions,” Parsons said. “If that’s the case, it’s going to be more the on-and-off-again approach that we’re used to with President Trump.

“And so, unfortunately, I don’t see the uncertainty that’s weighing on consumer and business sentiment ending anytime soon. This is going to be a long, prolonged trade war.”

Smith’s statement did acknowledge that remaining tariffs would need to be dealt with, and she called for national advocacy to rely on diplomacy over “escalation” and for premiers and the federal government to focus on supporting affected workers.

Alberta’s New Democrats also released a statement on the tariff announcement, saying “this is no time for victory laps.”

“What was announced today will hurt a lot of Albertans and a lot of Canadians. It will hurt a lot of workers. It will hurt a lot of small, medium and large businesses. It will cripple Canadian industries,” said Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi.

“It’s time for us to rededicate our efforts to ensure we are in a strong position going forward. That means Alberta must be working with Team Canada, including partnerships with the federal government and the other premiers to craft a thoughtful, rational, sharp strategy in the face of these tariffs.”

With files from CTV News Edmonton’s Chelan Skulski