Nanos Research chief data scientist Nik Nanos joins Alberta Primetime host Michael Higgins to discuss new polling showing a large majority of Canadians believe the United States would support Alberta separating from Canada. This interview has been edited for clarity and length. Michael Higgins: What are the numbers? What do they suggest? Nik Nanos: It’s quite striking. It’s a fairly simple question we ask Canadians: how likely or unlikely would it be that the United States would support Alberta separation? When you check out the national numbers eight out of every 10 Canadians think that it’s likely or somewhat likely the U.S. would support Alberta separation. The numbers in the prairies jump to almost nine out of every 10. Individuals that live in the prairie provinces - Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba - believe the U.S. would likely or somewhat likely recognize or support Alberta separation. The numbers are a little lower in the province of Quebec, which is kind of interesting because they have had a referendum that didn’t work for them, at least at that time. But in terms of how Quebecers feel about whether the U.S. would support Alberta separation are a little lower. But super high in the prairies, high across Canada. MH: What do you see driving that response, and why dig into this question in the first place? NN: Let’s face it, everybody knows that U.S. President Trump has asserted he’d be very happy for Canada to be the 51st state. So that narrative of annexation is already out there. The other thing is people know there’s a significant proportion of individuals in the province of Alberta that are not happy with the Federation and how it’s working, period, full stop. Another survey we’ve done for Alberta separation/independence shows about three out of every 10 Albertans believe Alberta should either be an independent country or part of the United States. MH: What does this data say about the degree to which this separation dialogue is registering with Canadians in general? NN: It’s significant. What it says is Canadians are taking Alberta separation seriously. And it’s not just Alberta separation, but Alberta separation in the context of the stress in the bi-national relationship and the comments Donald Trump has made about Canada being part of the United States. MH: You also have some new research on the opinion of Canadians where national defence is concerned. How much of an overlap is there between these two topics? NN: We just released a survey we did with the University of Calgary and the Canadian Defense and Security Network. First of all we asked Canadians who they thought the greatest international threat was to Canada. People could say whatever they wanted. Back in 2020 about 17 per cent of Canadians said unprompted the U.S./Trump was the number one threat. That has jumped 27 points to 44 per cent of Canadians that identify President Trump or the United States as a major threat to Canadian security. The perception of China as a security threat has dropped about 15 points over the last four years, according to the survey we did with the University of Calgary. Maybe these things are kind of intermingled in terms of the United States being a threat, not just to the sovereignty of Canada, but just to the security writ large. But in the survey on defense issues what was really striking is that Canadians are much more supportive of improving and upping the game on the defense front. They see national security and trade being the key pillars for our defense strategy. Here’s a little interesting tidbit. I think around 12 per cent of Canadians said they would be open to serving full time in the Canadian Armed Forces. You might not think that’s a lot, but if that ever happened that would make for a very different Canadian Armed Forces than we’re seeing today. MH: So there’s been a shift there? NN: 100 per cent we’re seeing a shift. A lot of this has to do with the view that we have not been keeping up with our NATO commitments. Also, when we ask Canadians about the things they associate or come to mind when they think of the Canadian Armed Forces, it’s things like outdated equipment. Professional soldiers, but outdated equipment, needing to catch up, having difficulty delivering on the mission. These things actually come to mind as the top things they associate with the Canadian Armed Forces. Part of that also includes being proud of the Canadian Armed Forces, saying the Canadian Armed Forces are well trained. But I think for a lot of Canadians, they understand today we do not have the equipment, we do not have the resources in place in order for the Canadian Armed Forces to deliver on a mission that is changing. Part of that mission includes our NATO commitments, but also Canadian sovereignty. MH: Do you see this influencing the direction the federal government takes moving forward? Or is it the other way around - Canadians reacting to policy? NN: I think it’s a little bit of both. I don’t think we should just say the government. The reality is the Conservatives and the Liberals now seem to have a consensus in terms of investing in defense, meeting our NATO commitment, and making sure the Canadian Armed Forces have the resources they need to deliver on their mission within our borders and our mission internationally. What we’re seeing is the Liberals agree, the Conservatives agree, and it looks like now Canadians agree we need to up our game, invest in defense and make sure we protect our sovereignty and meet our international security obligations to our allies.
