Extreme weather, U.S. funding cuts add pressure for Canada’s weather service: report

A truck is seen abandoned in floodwater following a major rain event in Halifax, on Saturday, July 22, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese

A new report looking at the future of Canada’s weather service suggests the country needs a co-ordinated flash flood warning system and says European partnerships could be deepened as the United States cuts climate- and weather-related funding.

The independent assessment prepared for Environment and Climate Change Canada says significant cuts to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration threaten a wide range of weather and water monitoring in Canada, from the Arctic to the Great Lakes.

The report produced by the Council of Canadian Academies says maintaining Canada’s own observation network is a critical part of the weather service’s mandate, especially as climate change and artificial intelligence reshape how forecasts are built and delivered.

Yet the report notes there are gaps in that network, especially in the North, where weather stations can be hundreds of kilometres apart and miss out on key weather variables.

Climate change figures prominently in the report, with the authors noting it will increase demand for timely and accurate extreme weather warnings.

The report does not offer formal recommendations, but it says there’s a need for a co-ordinated flood forecast system, including flash flood warnings, and notes the current patchwork of warnings and response initiatives is a weakness in Canada’s weather forecasting.

Climate change is also increasing the demand on Canada’s physical weather infrastructure and budget resources, the report says, with extreme weather causing damage to weather stations and demand for high-quality data to inform climate models on the rise.

Despite that, “program spending on hydro-meteorological services has remained relatively static over the past five years,” the report notes.

The federal government asked for the CCA’s report to examine the essential functions of the public hydro-meteorological service and how it could adapt to keep pace with growing demands.

Recent changes at NOAA come up several times in the report. With the U.S. administration’s recent funding cuts and restrictions on its scientists’ international collaborations, “Canada’s access to rich remote sensing data may be in jeopardy,” the report says.

That could be detrimental to Canada’s ability to create accurate and precise weather and climate analysis, the report goes on.

“Reduced funding for NOAA and its uncertain position as an active data-sharing partner further emphasize the need to support Canada’s data sovereignty and points to the potential for greater collaboration with service providers in Europe,” it says.

The report says while artificial intelligence promises to increase the resolution and accuracy of forecasts, it should also be paired with proven modelling. AI models’ decision-making processes are often opaque, and they can fail in unprecedented scenarios, such as those caused by climate change where past data may no longer be relevant, the report notes.

“Future forecasting systems that integrate AI and traditional physics-based modelling will help ensure accurate, reliable and more frequent predictions,” it says.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2025.

Jordan Omstead, The Canadian Press