U.S. has ‘underestimated’ Iran’s means to fight, says former Canadian general

Heather Wright reports from Türkiye, where NATO military technology has been essential in intercepting air-based attacks.

MALATYA, Turkiye -- Perched on the top of a snowy hill roughly 2,000 metres above sea level is the Kurecik Radar Base, a key NATO facility used for early detection of ballistic missiles. These types of warning stations have been key throughout this two-week war, for not only Turkish defence, but for neighbouring countries that have also been targeted by Iran.

Last week, a U.S. Patriot Missile Defence System was deployed to this base after two missiles fired from Iran were shot down, according to Turkish officials. On Friday, a third was intercepted.

“I am not scared,” says Mehmet, a shop owner in nearby Malatya, when asked how he feels about the war raging next door in Iran. “We didn’t have problems with Iran before. But if something happens, we can go and fight for our country.”

The hope, of course, is it doesn’t come to that. Turkiye’s top diplomat says Iran has denied responsibility for firing the ballistic missiles, claiming they never ordered such attacks.

“We are discussing the discrepancy between their statements and the reality with them,” says Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, adding the issue is being discussed at both diplomatic and military levels.

For those living near NATO bases in Turkiye, there is both a risk and reward. The bases use state-of-the-art technology and have been successful at intercepting missiles, but they are also targets.

“Pros and cons,” acknowledges Mehmet, who says he feels safer with Turkiye’s own defence system.

Another shop owner in Malatya, Burhan, says he worked at the radar base for eight years. He’s hopeful Turkiye won’t be dragged into this war and further.

“We are strong … and ready for anything,” he says.

While Iran’s tempo of attacks has slowed in recent days, they have still been able to carry out precision strikes using both missiles, and more frequently, drones. The regime says it is targeting the United States, Israel and “their allies,” including neighbouring Gulf countries that have seen hotels, businesses and oil refineries hit.

While the weapons used by the U.S. and Israel are much more advanced than the Iranian arsenal, they are also much more expensive with each missile costing millions of dollars. By contrast, Iranian drones cost a fraction of the American weapons taking them out.

“This is a war of economics right now,” said Ret’d Maj. Gen. David Fraser, CTV’s military analyst and former NATO commander in Afghanistan. “To shoot down a $60,000 drone, the price ratio on that could be 163 to one. Effective, but certainly not efficient.”

The United States does not release how many missiles or drones it intercepts, but said last week U.S. and Israeli forces had hit 15,000 targets in Iran since the war began. And while Iran is weaker, Fraser notes they are certainly not defeated.

“(The U.S.) has completely underestimated the Iranians,” Fraser said. “They’ve got a second wind.”

Iran is deploying a strategy similar to the one used in Ukraine, which has been able to hold off the much stronger Russian army for more than four years. Iran cannot match the United States and Israel when it comes to fire power, but it is so far successfully using drones and pinch points like the Strait of Hormuz to inflict damage.

U.S. President Donald Trump has called on allies to help with reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though it’s not clear if any country is willing to volunteer to patrol the narrow passageway.