This is what Canada will look like in 20 years – are we ready for an aging population?

Is Canada ready for an aging population? Environics Analytics' chief demographer describes what Canada's demographic landscape will look like as the senior population grows.

The rapid growth expected among Canada’s senior population in the coming years is one of the “most significant demographic trends” in the country’s history, says demographer Doug Norris. While this growth may present some challenges for younger generations, industry experts say it will also offer opportunities to pave the way for a better future.

Residents aged 65 and older are part of the fastest-growing age group in Canada today, said Norris, who is chief demographer at Environics Analytics, a marketing and analytical services company owned by Bell Canada. The company estimates that as of 2023, there are about 7.6 million people aged 65 and older in Canada. Many of these Canadians are part of the baby boomer generation, which includes those born from 1946 to 1964.

Based on recent immigration trends, data from a special analysis conducted by Environics Analytics for CTVNews.ca shows the senior population is expected to exceed 11 million people by 2043.

“Those numbers are really now at extremely high historical levels,” Norris told CTVNews.ca in a video interview. “(Baby boomers) are having a major impact on our society and our country.”

AT A GLANCE:

According to industry experts, sectors such as health care, employment and housing are largely unprepared for an aging population, without the proper systems in place or equipment in hand to address the needs of seniors today. While this may present challenges in the years to come, opportunities will also arise for younger generations to fill the gaps left by an aging population, health, labour and housing experts say.

Estimates shared by Environics Analytics in April show that as of 2023, seniors make up 19.3 per cent of Canada’s total population. This age group outnumbers children under the age of 15, which make up 15.5 per cent of the population. In contrast, in 1971, eight per cent of Canada’s total population was aged 65 and older, while 30 per cent was under 15 years of age.

Contributing to Canada’s aging population is an increasing life expectancy. Statistics Canada data from 2022 shows the country is home to nearly 13,500 centenarians, a 43 per cent increase compared to 2018.

Additionally, Canada’s fertility rate is lower than the global average of 2.3 births per woman, according to data compiled by the United Nations Population Fund in 2021. Since 1980, Canada’s fertility rate has remained at an average of 1.6 births per woman. If this rate stays consistent, the number of seniors in Canada will remain relatively high in the years to come, reaching about 25 per cent of the population by 2043, according to Environics Analytics.

A CLOSER LOOK AT CANADA’S SENIOR POPULATION

Canada’s seniors are not a monolith, with variations in average income, living arrangements and more. This can be seen through the PRIZM segmentation system developed by Environics Analytics. With 67 unique profiles, Environics says this system offers a snapshot of the demographic data, lifestyles and values held by Canadians today, including those aged 65 and older.

SILVER FLATS

This is the oldest segment, largely made up of mature suburban singles and couples.

SCENIC RETIREMENT

This PRIZM profile comprises a significant number of seniors, most of which are middle-income earners who live in suburban areas.

BACKCOUNTRY BOOMERS

A significant portion of Canadian seniors also live in rural areas. The Backcountry Boomer profile consists of couples and singles in rural areas who are lower- and middle-income earners.

Among the provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador has the oldest population, with 24.6 per cent of residents aged 65 or older. The province with the lowest percentage of seniors is Alberta, at 15.2 per cent. Census metropolitan areas with a total population of more than 100,000 seniors include Trois-Rivières and Saguenay in Quebec, as well as Peterborough, Ont., and Nanaimo, B.C.

The typical dwelling type held by PRIZM profiles with a high concentration of seniors is a low-rise apartment or single-detached home, according to Environics Analytics. Additionally, residents are more likely to own their home than rent. The cultural diversity index among the profiles mentioned above also remains low.

Although most Canadian seniors are non-immigrants based on data from 2021, those who immigrated to Canada make up 29.9 per cent of the senior population, with most having moved before 1980. Most seniors who would consider themselves visible minorities identify as Chinese, South Asian or Black. The majority of seniors in Canada practise either Christianity, Islam or Sikhism.

For those aged 65 and older, the median total income is about $33,200, according to Statistics Canada data from 2020. Sources of income mainly include government transfers and private retirement income, although employment income still accounts for nearly one-fifth of a senior’s total income.

HEALTH CARE: ‘INCREASING DEMAND’ FOR SERVICES

Some of the most significant challenges brought about by an aging population will arise in Canada’s health-care sector, said Chad Leaver, director of health at the Conference Board of Canada, a national research organization. Looking at current health-care systems, Leaver said the country is not adequately prepared for an aging population.

Staffing shortages among health-care workers that existed prior to the pandemic have only been exacerbated by waves of COVID-19 infections, experts say. The pandemic has also highlighted gaps in Canada’s long-term care system and poor conditions often faced by seniors living in these facilities, Norris said.

Adding to the problem is the fact that many of these health-care workers, such as physicians, are getting older themselves and preparing to leave the workforce. Data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information shows approximately nine per cent of physicians were 65 years of age and older in 2000, while seven per cent were between the ages of 60 and 64. By 2022, 15 per cent of physicians in Canada were aged 65 and older, and nearly 10 per cent were 60 to 64 years of age.

It’s also important to consider that patients are becoming older, too, said Arthur Sweetman, a professor at McMaster University in Hamilton who specializes in health and labour economics. An aging population is also resulting in “increasing demand” for health-care services, he said.

This rise in demand for physicians as well as caregivers is raising questions about who will fill these roles in the years to come, Norris said.

The answer may involve Canada’s younger generations, said Leaver. The rise in an aging population could serve as a chance for those entering the workforce to fill existing gaps in the health-care sector, one of which involves better tracking of a patient’s health status over time, something Leaver said is currently lacking across the country.

WORKFORCE: ‘IMBALANCE’ AS MORE WORKERS RETIRE

Beyond its impact on the health-care sector, a growing senior population has larger implications for Canada’s labour market and economy, Norris said. The Generation Z cohort has not been able to keep up with the large number of seniors who have been retiring over the last few years, he said, a trend that is expected to continue as more Canadians retire in the years to come.

Data from Statistics Canada shows that as of April 2023, about 4.5 million Canadians aged 15 to 24 were considered of working age. Meanwhile, at the same point in time, 12.3 million people aged 55 and older were considered of working age.

“The challenge we're now living through is having to deal with that imbalance between the numbers,” Norris said. “So we have … a slowdown in our workforce, and we see that today in terms of labour shortages.”

Businesses of all sizes and in all industries have complained about labour shortages for months, with experts saying Canada’s aging workforce is to blame. With fewer workers, this could lead to slower economic growth, Norris said. As a result, existing employees could be forced to work more hours, on average, to fill the gaps, which may impact their quality of life.

In order to prepare for future labour shortages, different sectors could consider more opportunities to hire younger candidates, Norris said, which might also allow them to move into higher-paying jobs. This phenomenon has already been seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, with some young candidates moving out of industries such as accommodation and food services, as well as retail trade, Norris said.

“Those are low-paying jobs and it wasn't that young people sort of left the workforce during the pandemic,” he said. “They had other opportunities and moved to higher-paying jobs in some way.”

HOUSING: AGE-FRIENDLY COMMUNITIES

Most Canadian seniors live at homes with their spouse, according to Statistics Canada census data from 2021. While about one in four seniors lives alone, this tends to be more common among women aged 65 and older than men. Additionally, data shows that living alone increases with age. This is particularly the case for women, due to the difference in death rates between both genders, Norris said. Data from Statistics Canada as of 2020 shows the average life expectancy for is 79.49 years for men and 83.96 years for women.

A large proportion of seniors aged 85 and older live in collective dwellings, which include nursing homes and seniors’ residences. Many seniors also prefer to live in the communities they were brought up in, Norris said.

Despite this desire to somewhat maintain the status quo, the deterioration of health conditions that comes with aging will often force seniors to change their living arrangements. This can include efforts to improve accessibility within their existing home or to move to a residence that can offer appropriate care, Norris said.

Not enough is currently being done to ensure seniors are able to accomplish either of these things, said Mark Rosenberg, a geography professor at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont., and a Canada Research Chair in development studies. To make sure the housing needs of an aging population are met, more money should be offered to seniors looking to renovate their homes through grants or additional benefits, Rosenberg said.

Aging in Canada

While the desire to age in place may make some young Canadians more concerned about purchasing their first home amid housing supply constraints, researchers are also calling for the creation of alternative forms of housing for seniors beyond one’s own home or long-term care residences.

Mary Ann Murphy, an associate professor of sociology at the University of British Columbia, points to one group home model in Kelowna, B.C., where she lives, as an example of a community that can benefit older Canadians. This type of housing involves self-contained units in an apartment-style building where residents have access to a housekeeper and share meals together. These homes are meant for those who might not need complex medical care, but are looking for support with chores and other responsibilities.

This kind of alternative can help seniors maintain a sense of autonomy while securing the support they need, without requiring a long-term care home, said Murphy. In addition to possibly freeing up existing residential properties, this gap in the market can serve as yet another opportunity for younger Canadians to get involved, particularly those looking to invest in real estate development, Murphy said.

CHALLENGES ARE ‘MULTI-JURISDICTIONAL’: EXPERT

Although there is still time before the senior population surges ahead of 2043, more must be done now to prepare for an aging population, Norris said. The demographer is hoping to see more intersectional co-operation between all levels of government to accomplish this, with provincial and territorial governments taking the lead on health-care initiatives and the development of age-friendly communities.

“From a demographer’s point of view, we could 40 years ago anticipate where we are today, those numbers were there,” Norris said. “The challenges faced are complex and multi-jurisdictional in many ways, and so we need various levels of government to work together to address the needs (of seniors).”

CTV News is a division of Bell Media, which is part of BCE Inc.

With files from The Canadian Press

Edited by Mary Nersessian, graphics produced by Jesse Tahirali