New data showing Canadians are avoiding U.S. may be ‘consequential,’ says professor

For the fourth straight month, Canadians are choosing to spend their tourism dollars anywhere but the U.S. Genevieve Beauchemin breaks down the numbers.

A new Statistics Canada report found that Canadian-resident return trips from the United States substantially declined in April, a trend that one professor says reflects the effectiveness of the Canadian movement to boycott American products and travel, in protest of the Trump administration.

“So what began as a notion back in late January and early February has actually become something more substantial, and it’s being borne out in the numbers,” Aaron Ettinger, associate political science professor at Carleton University, said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca on Monday from Waterloo, Ont.

“This is consequential. This is going to have ripple effects,” he added. “The question then becomes: is it going to have an effect downstream on American policy?”

According to preliminary StatCan data published Monday, the number of returning Canadian residents and non-residents to Canada by air and automobile fell for the third straight month to 4.5 million in April, down 15.2 per cent compared to the same time last year.

When it came to Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. specifically by automobile, the number declined to 1.2 million in April, a drop of 35.2 per cent from the same period in 2024. It was also the fourth month in a row of year-over-year declines.

Yigebashal Mekonnen, an economist analyst with StatCan’s tourism program at the Centre for Special Business Projects, told CTVNews.ca Monday the initial findings are based on the Canada Border Services Agency’s (CBSA) electronic data collected from land ports and airports. The full findings, based on data from paper, electronic and other sources, will be made public on June 23. She said the just-released information didn’t include reasons behind the trends.

Ettinger says the StatCan findings suggest that the Canadian movement to push back against the U.S. may be effective. He noted reports that some businesses in the U.S. were going through “hard times.”

Some Republican U.S. lawmakers have also introduced a bill to allow Canadian snowbirds who own or lease residences in the U.S. to extend their stay.

Lisa King is among the many Canadians who are refusing to travel south right now because of the conflict with the U.S. However, her husband Fred Saikaly is willing to go there. King said they have many good friends down south and had plans to visit friends in Boston, but she doesn’t want to go.

“I had no real issue until (Trump) started to say let’s annex Canada into the 51st state and then it was just ‘you‘ve got to be kidding me,’” King told Genevieve Beauchemin, Quebec bureau chief with CTV National News, from Montreal-Trudeau International Airport on Monday.

The Ottawa couple were heading to Paris for their trip, which they planned before tensions grew between Canada and the U.S.

Rather than Trump, Saikaly says he has more of a problem with the weak Canadian dollar, which makes visiting the U.S. not as appealing.

“It doesn’t bother me, I want to go where I want to go,” he told Beauchemin of CTV National News. “We have friends in New York. I’d go visit them in a heartbeat.”

Hope for change in U.S. actions

While some aren’t fazed by the U.S. conflict, Ron Stagg, an expert in Canadian-American relations and professor emeritus from Toronto Metropolitan University, says the StatCan findings suggest Canadians are standing up for themselves to protest the Trump administration’s treatment of Canada.

“I’m hoping that not having the income from Canadians is going to make (the Trump administration) think about the whole process,” Stagg said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca on Monday from Toronto.

Stagg adds that Canadians may be avoiding travel down south because they fear crossing the border, as some visitors have been detained or went through strict border checks.

Stagg said he cancelled his trip earlier this year to Florida to see his friends and niece because of feeling “not welcome.” He won’t be planning any trips to the U.S. until the situation improves, he added.

“It’s very sad that I’m old enough to remember when you could just cross the border, you didn’t need anything but a driver’s licence, you often didn’t even get asked that,” he said. “Suddenly these people who‘ve been our best friends for more than a generation are treating us badly, saying we’re exploiting them.”

Ettinger has hope that the situation will improve.

The “buy Canadian” movement and boycott of U.S. travel may even influence the 2026 U.S. midterms, if American voters realize the extent of the damage to the U.S. economy, Ettinger said.

“If Canada can weather the storm and put enough pressure on American politicians and the American population, by 2026, perhaps voters in the United States are going to send a signal and send different personnel to Congress,” he said.

Ettinger notes that many Canadians live near the U.S. border.

“My suspicion is that once we’re beyond the Trump years, Canadian travel to the United States will pick up again because it’s just so much a part of the North American experience, right?” he said. “Canada and the United States are tied at the hip.”

Numbers may be ‘tip of the iceberg’

Anthony Quinn, chief operating officer of the Canadian Association of Retired Persons (CARP), a non-profit advocacy group for older Canadians with more than 250,000 members, said the news of the decline in Canadians travelling from the U.S. is not a surprise. He believes it’s mainly because of Trump’s threats to annex Canada, though the weak Canadian dollar doesn’t help, and the tariffs issue has been going on for decades.

“Canadian travellers, particularly seniors, have very limited ways to fight back to such a threat as being a 51st state or the tariffs,” Quinn said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca on Monday. “The threats from Donald Trump and the language about being the 51st state, this is Canadians’ opportunity to say, ‘We don’t respect that point of view and we’re going to withhold our tourist dollars until we get the respect that we deserve.’”

He expects the numbers released Monday are likely “just the tip of the iceberg” before the busy summer tourist season, and before snowbirds make plans for next fall and winter.

“I think we’re only going to see those numbers increase,” Quinn said.

Quinn adds that he’s been hearing from many members who are not travelling south.

“They are telling us they are making other plans,” Quinn said. “They’re saying things like they will never, never travel to the U.S.A. again. I don’t know if that’s actually feasible, but they are really upset about the language and the instigation of the 51st state. They’re buying Canadian and they’re travelling elsewhere.”