Quebecers chose a new government on Monday, handing the Parti Québécois (PQ) minority power in the province’s legislature, raising questions about why a sovereigntist party was elected when polling shows little interest in separating from Canada. “I think for now, Quebecers wanted a divided government,” David Heurtel, political analyst and former Quebec cabinet minister, told CTV News Channel on Tuesday. “They wanted to give the PQ a minority government, and I think right now, what Quebecers want most is to deal with the priorities, the same priorities you see across Canada.” Quebec’s premier-designate, PQ Leader Paul-St Pierre Plamondon has said that his party will work towards holding a third Quebec sovereignty referendum, but that he will wait until U.S. President Donald Trump has left office. Minority saves province from ‘fraught territory’ That timeline keeps a referendum off the table for the next two years, by which point Plamondon may no longer be in charge, Heurtel said, noting that minority governments typically only last between 18 and 24 months. “It’s, for most Quebecers, a big sigh of relief that (the PQ) didn’t get a majority, because then we would have been in some very fraught territory,” Tom Mulcair, CTV News’ political commentator and former federal NDP leader told CTV News Channel Tuesday. “The fact that they were held to a minority came as a surprise to the PQ but not to those of us who kept our eyes on one number, which was 70 per cent. That’s the percentage of Quebecers that didn’t want another referendum,” he said. Heurtel made the same observation, noting that even as the PQ surged in the polls during the campaign, “support for sovereignty has not wavered.” “Seventy per cent of Quebecers, including 63 per cent of Francophones, do not want a referendum and do not want independence,” said Heurtel. Mulcair argued that while the PQ’s overarching separatist message was attractive to some voters in Quebec, Plamondon’s campaign mainly revolved around a promise to govern differently than the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which formed majority governments in 2018 and 2022. Even Plamondon said in the final stretch of the campaign that the election was going to be about who Quebecers trusted most to lead them through the turbulent economic and political times ahead. “It’s not totally accurate to say that this election is only about whether we would hold a referendum in three years from now,” Plamondon told CJAD, The Canadian Press reported. “It’s about changing or not changing a government that has catastrophic results in many areas of our society and choosing who could do a good job and who could be reliable in terms of what they do and what they say.” ‘Unnecessary risks’ Political analyst Daniel Tran told CTV News Channel on Tuesday that “unnecessary risks” made by Plamondon in the last week of the campaign might have had an impact on his chances of forming a majority government. “(He was) talking about the monarchy, even promising a seat for one of his candidates to become a minister,” he said. “That candidate did not win his seat in Athabasca … that may have affected the poles.” Quebec political analyst Sandy White told CTV News Channel on Tuesday that questions about coalition dynamics remain to be seen with the new minority government. “Québec Solidaire is the left-wing party in the National Assembly, kind of the remaining left-wing party in Quebec politics these days,” he said. “They also are a sovereignist party. So, do they end up working a little bit here and there with the PQ on certain issues?” However, White added that the “two parties kind of hate each other,” so for now, it’s unknown how it will play out. Collapse of the CAQ Despite the PQ’s victory, the party received just 28 per cent of the total number of votes cast on Monday, and it has very little representation in the province’s largest urban centres of Montreal and Quebec City. The collapse of the (CAQ), which failed to win any seats in the legislature, helped other parties gain ground as well. The provincial Liberals maintained opposition status after receiving 24 per cent of the popular vote, while the provincial Conservatives got roughly 21 per cent. While both parties have said they would not support a referendum, Quebec’s other sovereigntist party, Québec solidaire, won enough seats in the legislature to form a majority with the PQ. “They’ve got nine seats, so they could support the PQ if it decides to go ahead with the referendum bill, but there’s a lot of differences; they don’t get along very well on the political level,” said Heurtel. Another important aspect of the political landscape in Quebec to keep in mind, Heurtel argued, is the current popularity of the prime minister. “By far, in Quebec today, the most popular politician is Mark Carney,” he said. “So, it’s not like you have that dichotomy with a Justin Trudeau, a Stephen Harper, or even a Jean Chrétien. The dynamic is completely different, and Quebecers don’t have an appetite… for a referendum.” With files from The Canadian Press
