Canada released new study permit targets for 2026. Here’s why an expert says the numbers are ‘unhelpful’

People walk through the University of Montreal campus, in Montreal on Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov

The Canadian government has released its international student targets for next year, but experts say more than “numbers in isolation” is needed to create an effective intake system.

Under the federal government’s international student cap -- introduced in 2024 to slow the growth of Canada’s temporary population -- the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) sets an annual target for study permit applications.

On Nov. 25, the government announced that 408,000 permits will be issued in 2026, including 155,000 for newly arriving international students and 253,000 extensions for current and returning students.

This represents a 7 per cent decrease from this year’s target of 437,000, and a 16 per cent decline from the 2024 target of 485,000. It also continues a three-year downward trend in permit issuance since the cap was introduced.

Mario Bellissimo, a certified specialist in citizenship, immigration law and refugee protection, says he supports reducing the number of permits to allow for faster processing, but believes a more effective, research-based framework is needed to determine annual targets.

“For me, a global number is unhelpful,” Bellissimo told CTV News during a Zoom interview. “It’s a much more complicated synergy that needs to happen.”

Bellissimo argues that a better system would consider Canada’s capacity to provide temporary residents with housing, health care, and social services when setting permit targets. From there, he suggests identifying where an influx of highly-skilled migrants is needed, adding that this “again needs to correlate to the needs on the ground, both short-term and long-term.”

The federal government’s report emphasized attracting “top talent” through the International Student Program to meet Canada’s broader economic and social goals, and announced new exemptions to support this objective.

As of Jan. 1, 2026, master’s and doctoral students enrolled at a public designated learning institution (DLI) will be exempt from submitting a provincial or territorial attestation letter (PAL/TAL) — a document confirming a student has been assigned an available study spot in the region. Other exemptions include students in kindergarten to Grade 12, existing study permit holders returning to the same DLI, and certain vulnerable cohorts.

The new rules simplify the application process for graduate students, but Bellissimo says demand for them may not meet the supply, given the current job market.

“Intake (for higher education students) has to be tied to real-time, on-the-ground opportunities, or else highly skilled individuals will not make Canada their home.”

For non-graduate international students, the IRCC expects to issue 180,000 PAL/TAL-required permits, with allocations varying by province. Ontario will receive the largest share at 70,074 permits, followed by Quebec (39,474), British Columbia (24,786), and Alberta (21,582). Other provinces range between 774 and 6,534 permits, while all three territories will issue fewer than 200 permits each.

Bellissimo says his immigration law group has proposed a new permit issuance approach that it believes is a better way.

“All of these categories should be based on an intake system like an expression of interest, to determine how many applicants per category you want to invite. It’s a transparent system, people know what to expect.”

What should international applicants expect in 2026?

Bellissimo, whose law group handles study permit applications daily, warns that the application process for international students in 2026 may be more difficult than previous years.

“There’s going to be fewer opportunities for sure,” he said. “You’re also trying to traverse technology, artificial intelligence, and other automation.”

International students typically face higher tuition fees, but with fewer students allowed to study in Canada, Bellissimo says it’s unclear whether costs will change.

“I think that’s going to reflect how much these educational institutions were relying on additional revenue from international students.”

Despite the challenges, Bellissimo maintains that Canada remains “an excellent destination” for international students and believes permit issuance numbers will “fluctuate over time and hopefully become better informed.”