End of Alberta independence petition drive draws near, as experts weigh in on outcome of voters backing separation

A Canada flag, left, and an Alberta flag flap in the breeze with Wedge Mountain in the background at the site of the G7 Leaders meeting in Kananaskis, Alta.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

CALGARY - With about six weeks left to collect signatures, supporters of Alberta independence are working to gather enough names on a citizen-led petition that could trigger a province-wide referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada.

But even if the campaign succeeds and a majority of voters backed separation in a referendum, constitutional experts say the vote would only begin what could be a long and complicated process of negotiations with Ottawa, the provinces, and Indigenous nations.

Errol Mendes, a professor of constitutional and international law at the University of Ottawa, said the path to independence would involve significant legal and political hurdles.

“At every single stage, from the time they passed the referendum and somehow managed to get past the two fundamental qualifying issues, at every stage of negotiations, there’s massive barriers to ultimately Alberta becoming an independent state,” Mendes said.

• READ MORE: King Charles ‘expressed his concern’ over Alberta separatism in meeting: grand chief

Under Canada’s Clarity Act, a federal legislation passed after Quebec’s sovereignty referendum in the 1990s, a province cannot unilaterally leave the country.

Instead, if a referendum posed a clear question and produced a clear majority in favour of separation, the federal government would be required to enter negotiations with the province.

Those talks would likely involve not only Ottawa, but also other provinces and Indigenous nations, whose treaty rights are protected under the Constitution.

This week, several First Nations chiefs also raised concerns about Alberta’s separatist movement during a meeting with King Charles in London.

Mendes said negotiations would likely cover a wide range of complex issues including pensions.

“There would be huge issues in terms of how you separate out the Alberta pension fund from the Canada Pension fund,” he said.

“That in itself would be a monster discussion.”

He adds questions surrounding the military and national security would also have to be addressed.

• READ MORE: Indigenous chiefs go to Alberta legislature, pressure province to nip separatism push

Even if negotiations produced an agreement, Mendes said Alberta would still face another hurdle, recognition by other countries.

“Even if they were successful in terms of any outcome of the negotiation, there’s still an issue which the Supreme Court of Canada mentioned — would it be recognized under international law?” he said.

Jeffrey Rath, general counsel for the independence advocacy group Stay Free Alberta, had an optimistic outlook on being recognized by the international community.

“The other big wild card out there is that we don’t have any control over when and whether other countries recognize Alberta as being an independent nation,” Rath said.

“Some of that recognition could come immediately after a successful referendum result.”

He also rejected the idea that negotiations would necessarily take years.

“Anybody that thinks that this is going to be dragged out for more than a year is crazy. Canada doesn’t want the uncertainty that comes with dragging out these talks, and Alberta doesn’t want the uncertainty of these talks being dragged out,” Rath said.

“There’s a process under which this is all going to roll out, and I think people are going to be shocked by the speed with which this happens.”

• READ MORE: Separatism affecting First Nations’ relationship with provincial government: Treaty 8 grand chief

For some supporters of the petition campaign, the immediate focus is collecting enough signatures to put the question to voters.

Inside a Calgary bar, Boddums Up Pub co-owner Dwane Fillmore said he believes the independence movement is gaining traction.

“They have a hard time listening to Alberta,” Fillmore said of the federal government.

“We’ve been begging and pleading with them for years to listen to us, to listen to the people of Alberta, to support us.”

Fillmore said he understands that even if a referendum were successful, the path to independence would not be simple.

“The referendum is only the first stage,” he said.

“And then going on from there, there’s a lot of hoops you have to jump through.”

Still, Filmore said he believes the campaign has strong momentum.

“I don’t think there will be a problem at all, with the numbers that we have to get the referendum,” he said.