Modelling suggests Alberta's fourth wave has peaked, ICU admissions declining

COVID-19 testing in Calgary. (file)

CALGARY — A group of British Columbia researchers who track COVID-19 infection rates say Alberta is expected to see declines in case counts, as well as hospitalizations, in the weeks to come.

The BC COVID-19 Modelling Group — an independent group comprised of epidemiology, mathematics and data analysis experts from post-secondary institutions and the private sector — says there has been a "significant reversal in growth" in hospital admissions in Alberta that coincides with the provincial government's announcement of public safety measures on Sept. 15.

Case counts and hospitalizations, including intensive care unit admissions, are expected to decrease throughout November.

On Tuesday, the provincial government announced 442 new COVID-19 cases and 12 deaths. Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Deena Hinshaw confirmed 836 people with confirmed cases are currently hospitalized in Alberta including 182 in ICUs.

At the height of the fourth wave in mid-September, Alberta saw new daily case counts in excess of 1,600 and hospitalization numbers greater than 1,130.