‘Eternal optimists’: Southern Alberta farmers wary of drought conditions look to prairie skies for comfort

Farmers optimistic about 2025 Farmers, experts predict the summer of 2025 might be better for Alberta agriculture than the last few.

Magrath farmer Sean Stanford has lived through too many dry summers to be completely hopeful about the coming growing season in southern Alberta, but sees signs that the summer of 2025 might be better for farmers than the last few.

“It’s always worrisome the way the weather is in the winter, bringing us into the spring,” Standford said, “but I guess farmers are the eternal optimists – we’re always hoping things are going to turn around for us and be a perfect season.”

Stanford spoke to CTV News Sunday about his expectations for the upcoming season and how this winter compares to last year.

“Compared to last year, I think conditions are similar,” Stanford said. “We were worried about a drought last year as well at this time – and there’s also drought at the back of our minds this year already but we’re also optimistic we’re going to get lots of spring moisture.”

John Pomeroy, a University of Saskatchewan distinguished professor based in Canmore, said that farmers like Stanford actually have reasons to be optimistic.

“In Alberta, we’re in pretty good shape with respect to drought,” Pomeroy said. “The moisture that came in the fall, particularly in November, really saw moisture levels to about twice what we would normally expect at this time of year over a lot of east-central Alberta.

“We’ve got snowpacks again in the eastern prairies in Alberta that are close to winter maximums from many years – and much higher than they were last year at this time when there was no snow at all out there.”

The one area that’s drier this year, Pomeroy added, is in the mountains – but they are still in the early stages of their snowpack, so there’s still time to rally.

'Mixed bag' in 2024

Stanford described the harvest of 2024 as a “mixed bag” of crops for himself and his neighbours – not a bumper crop, but not terrible either – and said that farmers are taking more precautions than ever to preserve moisture.

“Over the past quite a few years, farmers have been doing a much better job of retaining the moisture needed to grow our crops,” Stanford said. “Things like no-till seeding systems, trying not to cultivate up the ground too much, trying to retain as much moisture as we can, trying to grow crops that conserve the moisture better, or don’t need as much moisture to grow a good crop.

“We’re trying our hardest to make as much product as we can with the least moisture as we can,” he said, “but it’s a tough go.”

Soil moisture levels

Pomeroy said an unusually wet November has left soil in solid shape heading towards growing season.

“The soil moisture levels that we have are much higher this year than last year,” Pomeroy said. “Last year, we were going in with bone-dry soils in many parts of the province and that would have required higher than normal precipitation in the spring to get back up to levels required for crop growth.

“This year," he said, continuing, "we’re already in good shape for soil moisture in many parts of province -- and that’s very, very helpful.”

Pomeroy said one thing that stands out about the winter of 2024-25 so far is that when experts forecast what winters in the region may look like 50 or 60 years from now, they say they may be wetter, warmer and shorter.

"And to some degree," he added, "this winter is looking a bit like that."

Back in Magrath, Stanford is already anticipating the spring.

“Seeding isn’t really that far away,” he said. “We’re almost at January now and we’re usually in fields in the first part or middle of April,

"We’re looking forward to growing season for sure.”