Talk of Alberta separation is bubbling up once again following a Liberal win in Canada’s federal election, but despite separatist groups organizing and a small appetite to leave, experts call the chances of a split “slim to none.” Mark Carney was elected prime minister Monday. His party — which pulled in about 44 per cent of the cross-country vote — will take a minority government to Ottawa this spring. A large reason for that win is key victories in Ontario and Quebec. And just like in the three previous elections, Canada’s red colouring turned into a blue prairie wave as it tracked west. Just three of Alberta’s 37 seats didn’t go to the Conservatives. Groups like the Republican Party of Alberta argue that’s enough reason for a confederation rethink. “Yesterday was the birthday for many new Alberta separatists,” leader Cameron Davies told CTV News. “This is now a completely abusive relationship (with Ottawa), and our mediation has failed. So, our only alternative is to now file for divorce from Canada.” The Republican Party of Alberta says federal decisions to “land-lock” energy and collect equalization payments have left many in the province with a bad taste in their mouth. “The Alberta Republican’s mission is for a binding independence referendum,” Davies said. “Not to enter into a formal attachment with any other nation in the world, but to truly become strong and free. There is a path forward, and there is a way out of this abusive, toxic relationship.” Mirage statistics Recent polling from Angus Reid shows a disconnect, with as many as one in four telling the institute they’d vote “leave” in a referendum. “Part of the reason I think it is more pronounced now is that there are people with formal political statuses who are actually pushing it,” University of Lethbridge political scientist Trevor Harrison said. “It’s very different when you get a fairly important ex-politician in Preston Manning and a premier (Danielle Smith) who, at almost every instance, is threatening some kind of referendum or something else. “So that gives it more heft than it would otherwise have.” But as for those numbers, Harrison says a deep dive begins to unravel the thread. For starters, Angus Reid said the separatist tone was higher in 2019. And yes — Alberta did elect 34 of 37 possible Conservatives. But the party will represent 92 per cent of the ridings despite only grabbing 64 per cent of the vote. “It’s one of those things that you’re forced to take seriously, but you also have to watch how seriously you actually take it, in the sense that it’s still a minority voice,” Harrison said. “It might be important any time there’s 25 per cent of people expressing something, but there’s still 75 per cent of people who are not in favour. And if you actually had a referendum, my suspicion is that 25 per cent drops down fairly rapidly.” One expert previously chalked it up to nothing more than a pipe dream. “This movement is likely a frustration or a protest vote at this point,” University of Alberta political scientist Jared Wesley said. “It’s not a realistic movement for change. “We asked people not just ‘Do you want to leave Canada?’ but ‘How likely do you think it would be?’ he said. “Even the hard-line separatists — the folks that are the most committed to the cause — don’t believe it’s a real possibility.” ‘It saddens me’ CTV News randomly sampled a handful of Calgarians on the matter Tuesday morning. Not one said they’d like to see Alberta leave. “I’m not for separation, and I don’t think the majority of Albertans are, either,” Jim Broadfield said. “So, I don’t think this election will have an impact on sovereignty.” “It saddens me to hear that some Albertans think that’s a good thing,” Lisa Rozak added. But Davies and his party believe there’s still hope for separatists. He hinted Tuesday the Republican Party of Alberta could bring forward a citizen-led provincial referendum and promised to respect its outcome either way. “With any referendum, the will of the people has to be respected,” he said. “And that goes back to Ottawa as well.” Asked by CTV News if the party’s sentiment is just sore losing, Davies pushed back. “This has to do with more than just one election. This is about a system that has perpetually dismissed Alberta,” he said. The former UCP operative has promised more moves in the coming weeks. He also says his party is growing, adding more than 5,000 new members since the Liberals were crowned Monday.
