Netflix slumps as revenue forecast disappoints lofty investor expectations

A television camera focuses on the Netflix Inc. company logo in this arranged photograph in London, U.K.

Netflix shares fell seven per cent in premarket trading on Wednesday after the streaming giant’s fourth-quarter revenue outlook failed to impress investors despite a strong line-up of shows, including the final season of “Stranger Things.”

The tepid outlook undermines the company’s run of strong revenue growth in recent quarters, thanks to hit shows and movies including “KPop Demon Hunters” that have helped boost Wall Street’s expectations.

Netflix is set to release the final season of “Stranger Things” in November and stream two live National Football League games on Christmas.

The company also missed third-quarter profit estimates due to unexpected expenses related to an ongoing dispute with Brazilian tax authorities, amounting to about $619 million, which weighed on an otherwise strong content quarter.

“The Brazil tax expense creates noise, but it’s not an issue... we believe the bigger focus on numbers is the lack of revenue upside in the back half,” said analysts at J.P.Morgan.

Netflix’s revenue for the third quarter was in line with forecasts, at US$11.5 billion, while for the fourth quarter, it forecast $11.96 billion, compared with Wall Street’s projection of $11.90 billion.

The company has ventured into advertising and video games to diversify its revenue streams, but these businesses have struggled amid shifts in leadership and strategy, along with stiff competition.

However, the company’s management said on a post-earnings call that it recorded its best ad sales quarter in history during the July-September period, without disclosing a number.

Netflix does not reveal subscription numbers as well, making it difficult for analysts to predict its financial performance.

“With no subscriber numbers, some advocates are grasping at straws to find any sign of weakness, as the company is faring much stronger than its rivals,” said PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore.

Netflix’s stock is up 40 per cent this year, outperforming its media peers as well as the S&P 500. Its forward price-to-earnings multiple, a common benchmark for valuing companies, is 39.59, well above the average of the so-called FAANG group of stocks that includes tech heavyweights Apple and Google.

(Reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)