Fed minutes: Lower inflation needed before many officials will support rate cuts

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026, at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

WASHINGTON — Many Federal Reserve officials want to see inflation fall further before they would support additional interest rate cuts this year, particularly if the job market continues to stabilize, minutes of last month’s meeting show.

The “vast majority” of the 19 participants on the Fed’s rate-setting committee said that there were signs the job market has stabilized, after the unemployment rate rose in late 2025, the minutes said. And most of the officials agreed that the Fed’s key rate is close to a level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. The minutes were released Wednesday, three weeks after the central bank’s Jan. 27 to 28 meeting.

Fed officials at that meeting agreed to keep its key rate steady at about 3.6 per cent, after cutting it three times late last year. Two officials — Fed governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller — voted instead to cut another quarter-point.

The minutes underscored the deeply divided nature of the committee, with several camps emerging: “Several” officials said additional cuts will “likely be appropriate” if inflation continues to decline. But “some” officials favored keeping rates unchanged “for some time,” suggesting a longer pause. And several other officials said they could have supported language in the statement issued after the meeting that would signal the next move by the Fed could be either a cut or a rate hike, if inflation remains above their two per cent target.

The support for signaling an openness to a potential rate hike appears to be a significant shift from previous meetings. Chair Jerome Powell said after meetings last year that the idea of a rate hike wasn’t on the table.

Powell signaled after January’s meeting that the Fed could wait for a few months before cutting rates again. He said at a news conference that the economy and hiring had improved since the central bank had previously met in December, and added that the Fed was “well positioned” to evaluate how the economy evolves in the coming months before making any further moves.

The decision to keep rates unchanged defied a stream of demands from President Donald Trump for the Fed to reduce its key rate to as low as one per cent, a level few economists endorse. When the Fed cuts its key rate, it can over time lower borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and business loans, though those rates are also influenced by financial markets.

The minutes said that the “vast majority” of the 19-person committee agreed that the risks of job losses and a worsening labor market had diminished, likely a key reason that they voted to keep rates unchanged. The Fed typically cuts rates to boost spending, growth, and hiring.

Figures released last week suggest the Fed will be unlikely to cut anytime soon. Inflation remains elevated, according to the Fed’s preferred measure, and January’s jobs report showed that hiring picked up last month. Those trends support those Fed officials who argue that the economy doesn’t need further rate cuts.

Consumer prices grew 2.4 per cent in January compared with a year earlier, the government said last week, not too far from the Fed’s two per cent target.

But the Fed focuses on a different measure of inflation, which is running higher. When the latest figure is released Friday, it is expected to have increased roughly 3% from a year earlier. The Fed’s preferred measure puts much less weight on housing and apartment rental costs, which have cooled considerably, and as a result it is running above the better-known consumer price index.

Also last week, the government said that hiring improved in January, with employers adding 130,000 jobs, the biggest gain in just over a year, while the unemployment rate slipped to a low 4.3 per cent, down from 4.4 per cent.

Fed Governor Michael Barr on Tuesday pointed to the jobs report as evidence that the labor market is “stabilizing,” while inflation remains above two per cent.

“Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time,” Barr said.

Separately, Austan Goolsbee, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, told CNBC Tuesday that the Fed could reduce rates “several more” times this year, if there is evidence that inflation was moving closer to two per cent.

Christopher Rugaber, The Associated Press