Could this Canadian energy company help fill the LNG supply gap in Qatar?

Brooke Thackray, research analyst at Global X, joins BNN Bloomberg to share some stocks to have on your radar.

The war in Iran has unlocked an opportunity for Canada to become a major exporter of liquified natural gas, industry leaders say.

Whether or not it delivers, depends on how fast it steps up to the opportunity.

While some companies are able to rise to the occasion and ramp up production, long approval times for infrastructure projects are stalling progress for Canada, which has one of the largest natural gas deposits in the world, explains Brooke Thackray, research analyst at Global X.

He says one company well positioned to benefit is Calgary-based energy company ARC Resources.

“What we’re seeing is the emphasis is all about heavy oil, but Arc Resources has a lot of natural gas...so it can take advantage of what’s taking place here,” says Thackray.

The company said it plans to direct 25 per cent of its natural gas production to international markets, starting next year, which will allow it to move away from discounted domestic pricing and secure premium, internationally linked prices.

Arc Resources estimates $1.2 billion in free funds flow for 2026, with average production expected to reach 405,000 to 420,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day.

“Longer term, this is a good thing, and if we take a look at the damage that’s been done to the infrastructure at Qatar, I mean, it’s gonna take five years to rebuild,” says Thackray.

Qatar’s national oil and gas corporation, QatarEnergy, confirmed that repairs to its main LNG production site, Ras Laffan Industrial City will take between three to five years after recent missile strikes.

The company, which supplies 20 per cent of the world’s LNG supply, said the disruption will result in approximately US$20 billion in lost annual revenue.

“There’s going to have to be a replacement for LNG, and so ARC Resources will be able to help fill that later on,” says Thackray.

“They’re going to get more and more exposure to international markets over time.”

However, he said Canada is far behind the U.S., which has expanded its LNG capacity over the past decade.

“We’ve lost a lot of that opportunity as far as that goes. But in Qatar, their production is really gonna be hampered for a long time, and who knows, maybe it actually gets worse here,” says Thackray.

‘The opportunity has come back for Canada’

The war in Iran is giving Canada a second chance to step up, says Francois Poirier, chief executive of natural gas pipeline operator TC Energy Corp.

“The opportunity has come back around for Canada to punch above its weight,” says Poirier.

He says 15 years ago, neither the U.S nor Canada had LNG export capabilities, but now the U.S. has eight facilities and Canada has one.

“If we were playing a hockey game right now, the score would be eight to one,” he says, explaining that Canada needs to speed up major projects to benefit from LNG demand, as Germany did following the Ukraine war.

“When you’re competing on the global stage, customers aren’t going to wait,” says Poirier.

“They’re not going to wait for any particular country who could supply their LNG to finish their regulatory process. They’re going to sign up for that capacity when they need it.”

‘Let’s be the largest exporter of LNG to Asia’

Currently, the LNG Canada facility is ramping up toward its full Phase 1 capacity of 1.84 billion cubic feet per day. It is also evaluating a Phase 2 expansion that would double that output to roughly 3.7 billion cubic feet per day.

Additionally, other B.C. projects like Cedar LNG, Woodfibre LNG, and Ksi Lisims LNG are in development and could collectively add another 2.3 billion cubic feet per day to Canada’s export total.

“I think we should aim high. Let’s be the largest exporter of LNG to Asia, and that would be in that sort of 12 billion cubic feet per day range,” says Poirier.

“The resource is there in the Western Canadian basin,” he says, adding that Canada’s West Coast offers a strategic shipping advantage to Asia.

“It’s a much shorter distance. It’s about eight days shorter than shipping from the Gulf Coast of the U.S.”