More U.S. residents came to Canada than Canadian residents returned from the U.S. in July

The Air Canada check-in area inside Terminal 1 of Toronto Pearson International Airport is pictured in Mississauga, Ont., on Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Arlyn McAdorey

OTTAWA — Canadians might be shunning trips to the U.S. as the tariff war trundles along, but Americans are still heading north, so much so that July marked a milestone.

Statistics Canada said Tuesday that more U.S. residents came to Canada that month than Canadian residents returned from the U.S. It’s a feat that’s only happened one other time in roughly the last two decades, if you exclude the COVID-19 pandemic outliers of August and September 2021.

The same imbalance happened in June this year, but before that it hadn’t occurred since June 2006.

The most recent shift has come as Canadians have doubled down on patriotism, skipping travelling to the U.S. because President Donald Trump continues to pummel the country with tariffs on goods crossing the border.

In July, higher tariffs were in place for goods that were not exempt under the United States-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement.

But that wasn’t the only factor at play, said Wayne Smith, director of the Institute for Hospitality and Tourism Research at Toronto Metropolitan University.

Canadians were also nervously watching their country’s economy, U.S. immigration agents arrest undocumented migrants and poor exchange rates.

“You put that all together and ... you’re going to see a big reduction in tourism as a result,” Smith said.

That big reduction amounted to a 32.4 per cent drop in the number of Canadian-resident return trips from the United States in July. About 2.6 million trips meeting that criteria were made, Statistics Canada said.

Smith thinks those that eschewed the U.S. probably explored Canada instead.

“When people get nervous, they tend to stay closer to home,” he said. “They tend to do more drive destinations. They tend to stay more in province and do shorter trips.”

Numbers indicate Americans likely didn’t ascribe to the same school of thought. The number of trips to Canada by U.S. residents fell by only 3.0 per cent compared with a year ago, to almost 3.3 million.

Some of them ventured across the border because they felt Canada needs to be supported, while others didn’t think twice about the geopolitical storm, Smith said.

“It’s business as usual for most Americans,” he said.

Other nations more than made up for the dip in travel from U.S. residents.

Statistics Canada said the number of trips to Canada by overseas residents in July was up 10.3 per cent from the same month last year.

Arrivals in July from those in Europe and Asia both posted increases of 10.3 per cent compared with a year ago.

The top three countries of residence for overseas visitors were the U.K. followed by France and India.

The number of Canadian-resident return trips from overseas in July increased 8.3 per cent compared with a year ago.

Smith expects July patterns to continue when August numbers are released. He said the bigger test will come in the cooler months, when Canadian snowbirds typically head to Florida and other warm U.S. locales.

“These are people spending tens of thousands of dollars to visit the U.S. and they’re doing everyday things like going shopping, grocery shopping and to the doctor, which has a large economic impact,” he said.

“If the snowbirds don’t decide not to go back ... they’re going to feel it pretty heavily.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 23, 2025.