Canadian farmers fear Trump’s beef with dairy

Canadian dairy farmers are worried that when it comes to a trade war with Trump, their market may have the most to lose. Genevieve Beauchemin explains.

Canadian dairy farmers are bracing for the fallout of U.S. President Donald Trump’s longstanding beef with their industry now that he has been sworn in to office. They worry their industry may lose out in high-stakes trade bargaining talks as the threat of tariffs looms.

“We need to be careful and not move too fast and stick together as Canadians,” says dairy farmer Jason Erskine. “We shouldn’t pick each other apart and sacrifice one industry for another.”

For generations, Erskine and his family have milked cows for shipping in Hinchinbrooke, Quebec -- a quaint rural area, dotted with farms and a covered bridge, on a wind-swept road less than two kilometres from the United States.

Supply management system

The border has become a dividing line in a feud over milk that has churned for years. Americans want more access to the Canadian dairy market. For decades, farmers this side of the border have been protected by a supply management system.

Jodey Nurse, faculty lecturer at McGill University, studies Canada’s supply-managed dairy, egg and poultry industries. She says the system was brought forward as farmers were facing production costs that were often higher than they could earn.

“It is a really uniquely Canadian system that evolved during the ‘60s and ‘70s, in order to make sure that supply was managed and that farmers could get a fair price for their product,” she says, adding that it also provides stability, and an ability for farmers to reinvest in their farms.

One of the system’s pillars is to impose costly import tariffs on dairy that set up a wall of protection around Canada’s dairy industry keeping most foreign milk out.

During Trump’s first term, Canadian dairy farmers were in his crosshairs and Canada ceded part of the market during trade talks then.

Farmers now fear Canada will open the door further as a trade-off in negotiations to avoid high tariffs on other goods.

Families, farms could suffer over Trump’s dairy demands

Erskine has seen firsthand some of the other efforts Canada is making to avoid the incoming tariffs. The roads near his farm -- where he’s spotted migrants going to or coming from the U.S. -- are now much busier. RCMP and Quebec police officers have stepped up patrols to answer Trump’s demands to boost border security.

But dairy farmers say if Canada yields to Trump’s demands over dairy, Canadian families, farms and rural communities could suffer.

“When we process the milk, we also truck the milk here, and we sell it here,” says Erskine. “So, it is all the spinoff jobs that come out of that. That is why the Americans want to sell their milk here.”

He says rural grocery stores and gas stations often rely on business for farmers to keep their doors open.

The system has faced trade challenges from the U.S. and other countries.

Still, Nurse says eroding the system could prove devastating for farmers who could not compete with larger foreign producers, “because they have stability. Farmers are able to reinvest in their farms,” says Nurse.

“They are able to make long-term investments that benefit the communities they live in.”

In the middle of the night, hours before Trump’s inauguration, Erskine was up with a new calf. He says keeping his cows healthy is what his focus is on for now, as dairy farmers wait to see where trade talks go.