The no-deal trade agreement between Canada and the United States will impact provinces coast to coast. According to Economists, Nova Scotia is expected to suffer the most. “Nova Scotia is the province most heavily affected in the Maritimes by the trade. There is about $280 million worth of exports from Nova Scotia, including rubber, plastics and wood products being affected by these new US tariffs,” said Colin Mang, an Economist at McMaster University in Hamilton. “For New Brunswick, it’s about 260 million worth of exports to the United States, predominantly in wood and paper products. So we do expect some job losses in the Maritimes as a result. possibly as much as 1800 in Nova Scotia and up to as much as 1600 in New Brunswick. So like many other provinces, unfortunately, the Maritimes are going to be hard hit by the new Trump tariffs.” Looking at the timing, it’s hard to say when the ball will start rolling on this potential impact. “I think in the short term we are saved. We won’t have any immediate job losses because of course, this seems to be day by day at times, hour by hour,” said Ron Marcolin, New Brunswick Divisional Vice-President of Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters. “But I think it is fair to say now that 50 per cent tariffs on certain imports into the United States is certainly going to affect Atlantic Canada. There’s no doubt about it. It’s just a matter of when. It’s still too early to determine when we are in this bit of a state of flux as we speak, because Canada hasn’t brought in the retaliatory tariffs.” “This is a fast-moving story. So, nobody can answer that question definitively,” added Tom Urbaniak, Professor of Political Science at Cape Breton University. “Which jobs will be affected, which small businesses will be affected, and which profit margins will be affected? We will hear tomorrow what Canada’s response will be, how targeted that response is. I predict it will be very strategic and targeted. It will look at swing districts, it will look at red states. It might look at certain Canadian investments, Treasury bonds for example.” But the tariffs from the U.S. seem to already be selected for certain sectors. “So already today, Donald Trump announced that there will be 50 per cent tariffs on cars and trucks, among other things, starting January the 1st. It wouldn’t be surprising if impulsively, surprisingly, without notice or foresight, he announces something else one of his more animated officials announces something else,” said Urbaniak. “Because one thing we learned from this whole process is that the American negotiators are not always on the same page, that there are last minute interventions, that there are very hawkish people in the Trump administration, and there are different agendas going on at the same time.” Those in the industry aren’t trying to react but do want to prepare. “I think it’s fair to say that obviously we are in a time of peril. I mean, we can’t sugarcoat this,” said Marcolin. “We’re in a time of peril. We have to prepare. I mean, it’s fair to say personal finances should be looked at very closely. And again, we don’t want to push the panic button.” “Unfortunately, this is going to raise the unemployment in the Maritimes. This is going to have a negative effect on Canadian families who have already been struggling with a number of challenges over the past few years in terms of cost-of-living increases, and now to have future job uncertainty, as well as declining economic activity in the region, is just one more challenge that our country is going to have to bear,” said Mang. But for businesses and employers, there are positives to look for, especially when it comes to inter-provincial trade and even other countries. “It’s will be very important for the provinces to work together and the maritime provinces to work among themselves,” said Urbaniak. “And as part of Team Canada, one advantage that Canada has over the United States at this moment is that we actually are quite united.” “Inter-provincial trade barriers obviously are starting to lift. So that’s extremely important. Some may argue we should have done it years ago,” said Marcolin. “The point is we are doing it now. So overarching of all of this is truly to buy local. It is very important to keep your dollar Canadian and to, you know, get behind the Canadian flag and by as much local as you possibly can.” Experts also want people to remember that these tariffs could be temporary. “Seeing how many of these tariffs remain in place over the coming months, it’s certainly possible that some of them may disappear. It’s also possible some of them may get worse in the short term. But over the long term, Canada’s economic prospects as we diversify our trade internationally are still very bright,” said Mang. " And of course, President Trump is only going to be president for another two and a half years after he leaves office. Really, anything is possible." For more Nova Scotia news, visit our dedicated provincial page
