The latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows that the NDP has slipped to third place nationally, following Thursday night's French-language debate.

Voters were asked: "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"

The latest numbers show:

  • 32.5 per cent picked the Liberals as their top choice
  • 31.5 per cent chose the Conservatives
  • 27.6 per cent chose the NDP

The results mark the lowest level of support registered by the NDP since the nightly tracking began on Sept. 4.

Regional numbers from Nanos Research show that the NDP has also cycled downward for the past three nights in Quebec, diminishing their advantage in the province. Both the BQ and the Conservatives have gained in Quebec in the Nanos tracking in the past three nights, while support for the Liberals was unchanged following the debate.

The latest numbers show the NDP at 35.7 per cent support in Quebec, the Liberals at 27.9 per cent, the Conservatives at 18.2 per cent, and the Bloc at 16.4 per cent.

The Green Party has 3.7 per cent support nationally and 1.8 per cent in Quebec.

"When we look at the numbers in the past three to four nights, we've seen some shift," Pollster Nik Nanos said on CTV's Question Period on Sunday. "We've seen the New Democrats down six points and the Bloc Quebecois up six points, so there has been movement in Quebec coming out of the French debate."

However, Nanos said, the slight drop in NDP support is not necessarily a sign of things to come.

"There's been a bit of a dip, but it doesn't mean that it'll continue," he said. "The race is so tight and it's so fluid, which means that every week counts and it's going to be important to fight the emergence of a trend that's working against you in the campaign."

Poll methodology:

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error 1,073 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The subsample for Quebec is based on 262 decided individuals. A sample of 262 respondents is accurate ±6.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Mulcair trends downward on the preferred PM measure

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair is trending downward on the preferred prime minister measure, the latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows.

According to the most recent survey, Mulcair is now trailing behind both Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

For the survey, respondents were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"

The latest survey results show:

  • 31.4 per cent of respondents picked Harper
  • 27.8 per cent picked Trudeau
  • 23.0 per cent picked Mulcair, placing him at his lowest level since nightly tracking began

However, while Mulcair has recently fallen on the preferred prime minister measure, he continues to score well when respondents are asked if he has the qualities of a good political leader.

For that measure:

  • 59.1 per cent of respondents said Mulcair has the qualities of a good leader
  • 54.6 per cent said Trudeau has those qualities
  • 53.3 per cent said Harper has those qualities

According to the Nanos survey, this suggests a "potential disconnect" may be emerging between the positive impressions of Mulcair as a party leader, and the perceptions of Mulcair as a future prime minister.

Leadership survey methodology

The national random telephone (land and cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

Full poll and survey at Nanos Research

Follow @niknanos on Twitter