Today’s provincial election in Alberta will be closely watched across Canada, with polls from recent weeks suggesting an NDP surge that could put the Progressive Conservative dynasty in serious trouble.
The Tories under Premier Jim Prentice are seeking a 13th consecutive majority government, but could end up with a minority – or be ousted -- if recent opinion polls are correct.
Here’s what you need to know as Albertans head to the polls:
The economic backdrop
Prentice called an early election in April, saying he needed a mandate to implement a tough-love budget in the wake of collapsing oil prices and economic uncertainty.
The 2015-16 provincial budget, tabled in March, calls for tax and fee increases across the board to offset a $5 billion deficit – the largest in Alberta’s history. The budget includes a health-care levy and higher taxes on gasoline, cigarettes and alcohol. Another levy will be added to the provincial income tax starting July 1 to help offset the cost of health care.
Opposition parties have called the tax increases unfair and slammed Prentice for sparing corporations. The tax and fee increases, combined with austerity measures, have made the budget plan unpopular with Albertans.
NDP surge?
What was initially supposed to be a victory lap for Prentice turned into a tight race as the Opposition Wildrose and the NDP quickly gained ground on the campaign trail.
NDP Leader Rachel Notley, who promised to balance the books by 2018 with tax increases for corporations and the wealthy, started off as an underdog. But her popularity soared after a strong showing in the leaders’ debate last month.
“Now, every single poll is showing that she’s going to win this election today, hard to believe as that is,” Don Martin, host of CTV’s Power Play, told CTV News Channel Tuesday.
Even though Alberta is “the heart of Conservative country,” Prentice has had a “terrible” campaign and even die-hard PC supporters seem to be questioning his ability to carry on the Conservative legacy, Martin said.
Prentice’s performance during the leaders’ debate was widely panned on social media after he told Notley, “I know that math is difficult,” during an exchange about corporate taxes.
Earlier in the campaign, the premier was forced to backtrack on his plan to reduce the charitable donation tax credit, amid heavy criticism from his opponents and charity groups.
The problem with polls
Anyone who followed the 2012 Alberta election knows that political polls can be way off.
Heading into that election, Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith was the projected winner. But after the ballots were counted on election day, the Wildrose Party ended up with only 17 seats and Alison Redford’s Progressive Conservatives won a solid majority with 61 seats.
How you can follow along
Watch LIVE here at 8 p.m. MT: CTV News special coverage of Alberta Election 2015.
CTVNews.ca will have ongoing Alberta election throughout the day, so be sure to check back for the latest updates.
And if you’re just catching up on the election issues, we have a timeline of all the campaign twists and turns, as well as a breakdown of all the major party planks.
With files from The Canadian Press
