As the leaders of Ontario’s three major political parties prepare for Tuesday night’s debate, four out of 10 Ontarians say they will decide who to vote for after the face-off, according to a new poll.

The poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid for CTV News and CP24, shows that 62 per cent of respondents had decided who to vote for before the election began.

But another 38 per cent said they will make up their minds after the televised leaders’ debate. Here is the breakdown:

  • 13% said they’ll wait until “right after the Leaders debate” to make up their mind;
  • 14% said they will “wait until the last week of the campaign”;
  • 11% said they will probably make up their mind “in the voting booth on Election Day.”

Among those who said their vote was decided before the writ dropped, 41 per cent said they have no intention of changing their minds, and 21 per cent suggested they might throw their support behind a different party by the end of the campaign.   

Other highlights from the latest poll include:

  • Nearly half of surveyed women (47%) said their vote is still in play between Tuesday’s debate and election day, compared to 29 per cent of men;
  • NDP (29%) and Liberal supporters (27%) are more likely than Progressive Conservative voters (22%) to decide who to vote for some time between the leaders’ debate and election day;
  • PC supporters (61%) are most likely to have made up their mind before the election and say that they will not change their choice. By comparison, 41 per cent of Liberal and NDP supporters said the same;
  • Nearly a third of residents in the 416 area code, which covers the City of Toronto and the suburbs of Etobicoke and Scarborough, said they had a choice in mind before the election, but are willing to shift their support as the campaign continues.

The Ipsos Reid poll surveyed 868 Ontarians online between May 26 and 29. The survey is accurate to within 3.8 percentage points. 

Watch the Ontario leaders debate LIVE on Tuesday, June 3 at 6:30 p.m. on,, CTV News GO and CTV