Canadians still reeling from a bitter winter that saw temperatures dip to near record levels will be happy to hear that forecasters are predicting a strong chance of El Nino reappearing before the year's end.
This could mean a warmer-than-usual winter for Canada, according to Environment Canada climatologist David Phillips.
Phillips said El Nino produced a mild winter in Canada in 2009/10 – the warmest winter on record – and in 1997/98, which marked the sixth warmest winter in 67 years .
"This is why a lot of Canadians are excited, because next winter looks a little less brutal and brittle than what we saw this winter," Phillips told CTV News.
The El Nino, a flow of unusually warm surface waters from the Pacific Ocean toward and along the western coast of South America, changes rain and temperature patterns around the world and usually raises global temperatures.
On Thursday, the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization put the odds of El Nino at 60 per cent between June and August, rising to 75-80 per cent between October and December. It said the expected warming would come on top of the effects of man-made global warming.
The organization said it's too early to predict the exact impact on global temperatures in 2014, but it expects the long-term warming trend to continue as a result of rising greenhouse gas concentrations.
Phillips said while an 80 per cent chance of El Nino by the year's end are good odds in the weather business, there's never a guarantee when it comes to El Nino.
"The water temperatures have warmed up nicely across the Pacific, but the atmosphere hasn't responded to it quite yet," he said. "It's a dance that takes place between the oceans of the atmosphere."
Phillips said in an El Nino year, there are fewer Atlantic hurricanes and more rainfall in Arizona, California and Florida, which would be good news considering the recent drought situations in those states.
However, El Nino also typically means worse droughts in places like Australia, the Philippines and Brazil, and heavy rains along the western side of South America.
As for Canada, Phillips said we'll have to wait until the winter to see the full effects of El Nino.
Environment Canada, meanwhile, is calling for warmer conditions in the western and eastern provinces and normal temperatures in the central part of the country for the remainder of the summer.
"We think the best part of summer is still ahead of us," Phillips said.
With files from CTV's Alberta Bureau Chief Janet Dirks
