Eric Ham: China’s record purchases of Canadian crude could be a harbinger of more deals to come

Eric Ham on U.S. President Donald Trump saying a deal may not happen ahead of the August 1 deadline and Canada may be forced to ‘just pay tariffs.’

Eric Ham is based in Washington, D.C. and is a political analyst for CTV News. He’s a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress and writes for CTVNews.ca.

China is now importing record amounts of Canadian oil after slashing U.S. oil purchases by roughly 90 per cent.

As a result, imports of Canadian crude have surged, reaching a record 7.3 million barrels in March. This massive boon comes as Canadian negotiators are racing against the clock to make a trade deal with the White House.

The expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline has enabled China and other East Asian importers to access Canada’s vast crude reserves, which are relatively cheap and suitable for China’s advanced refineries that process dense, high-sulfur crude.

The shift reflects Beijing’s strategic move to diversify its oil sources away from the U.S., Russia, and the Middle East, with Canadian oil becoming an increasingly attractive option.

It’s a serendipitous endeavour, considering U.S. President Donald Trump’s unrelenting attacks on America’s northern neighbour, which are increasing as the deadline on a trade deal rapidly approaches.

Still, record purchases of Canadian crude by China could be a harbinger of more deals involving Beijing and Ottawa as Canadian leaders seek viable alternatives. A move that could see Canada exit America’s sphere of influence, as the relationship appears to be no longer mutually beneficial and grows more turbulent and confrontational with each passing day.

Instead of looking south, Ottawa is now looking (Far) East. During a recent summit in Bellevue, Washington, U.S. envoy to Canada Pete Hoekstra told the audience that Trump thinks the country is “nasty” to deal with. As a result of the rapid deterioration the brewing cold war between once-great friends and allies now has Beijing exploring a possible opening.

As the uncertainty of difficult trade demands and erratic import duties stifle global markets, Ottawa and Beijing are looking increasingly more enchanting to each other, given the increasing volatility emanating from Washington.

China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner, trailing behind the United States. Canada exports $47 billion worth of goods to the world’s second-largest economy in 2024, according to Chinese customs data.

After years of fraught relations and simmering tensions, the two nations agreed on a diplomatic reset after a phone call between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Li Qiang back in June. The thawing comes as both nations find themselves under siege by a White House hell-bent on exacting maximum punishment on both countries as trade negotiations reach a fevered pitch.

Still, as Ottawa eyes new pathways, in a geopolitical landscape marked by turmoil and ambiguity, Beijing has signalled a willingness to readily engage and establish closer ties with the Great White North. Chinese envoy to Ottawa, Wang Di, has even gone so far as to state on the record that China would be willing to consider negotiating a free-trade deal.

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The remarks underscore the Asian powerhouse’s readiness to advance opportunities beyond the incessant economic warfare being waged by Washington. Yet, while China’s premier and Carney have both signaled a willingness and desire to move towards a more advantageous relationship, Carney still appears to be moving at a tepid pace. Despite this, China continues to show an outward motivation to deepen ties in the face of growing alienation and separation with the U.S. Canada’s premiers, meanwhile, are hoping to speed up the diplomatic thawing.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, whose province is Canada’s top canola producer, said the country must “reset our relationship with China if we are going to have any hope of diversifying.”

“China is one of the largest markets in the world. It’s our second-largest trading partner as the province of Saskatchewan,” said Moe in Huntsville, Ont., where he attended meetings with other provincial leaders and the prime minister. “They’ll need to be a part of that process.”

Further highlighting this desire to look east rather than south, in a joint statement, Canada’s premiers urged Carney to “improve the overall trade relationship” with Beijing and remove the tariffs.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he’s against removing tariffs against Chinese electric vehicles, but he would have no problem doing more business with China, “as long as China plays fair and doesn’t undercut our markets.”

“I don’t consider Americans the enemy, but right now President Trump himself is acting like the enemy,” Ford said. In a classic ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’ moment, many Canadians see the U.S. as increasingly and openly hostile to the nation’s interests.

As the enmity and bellicosity from the White House continues to grow, the premiers are increasingly open to seeking pathways to growth, which includes less reliance and dependence on the United States.

China, despite years of antagonism, and growing suspicions, seems ready to move past the intense divisions and leverage Washington’s insolence and insularity to both its and Canada’s benefit.

If the oil sector is any indication of the possibilities on the horizon, Ottawa and Beijing might find a welcome resolve — at least short-term — from the instability and erratic oscillation that is plaguing Washington. Recently, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators travelled to Ottawa to meet with Carney.

The lawmakers were seeking common ground on many of the recalcitrant issues facing negotiators. Touting themselves as “bridge-builders” and dismissing Trump’s rhetoric of Canada as the 51st state as merely “bluster,” the members of the U.S. Senate Finance Committee are hoping to maintain strong ties with Ottawa and see the relationship bolstered and fortified.

Unfortunately, their wishes and hopes count for very little as it is the opinion of one, the occupant of the White House, that will ultimately determine the tone and trajectory of relations between Washington and Ottawa. Which is why Beijing is hoping and betting big that given Trump’s history, it can be the stand-in when, not if, the ties that once bound two nations are eventually severed.