NATO armies unprepared for drone wars, Ukraine commander warns

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Service, emergency services personnel work to extinguish a fire following a Russian rocket attack in Odesa, Ukraine, Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. (Source: Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP)

NATO armed forces are not ready for a modern drone war, the military commander in charge of Ukraine’s unmanned systems warned, three years into a conflict with Russia in which both sides are pushing for a technological edge.

Kyiv is striving to stay ahead of the enemy, employing artificial intelligence, deploying more ground drones and testing lasers to bring down Russian unmanned aerial vehicles, said Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi, head of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces.

Speaking in a newly outfitted office for the recently founded Unmanned Systems Forces, the location of which Reuters was asked not to disclose, Sukharevskyi laid out the leaps and bounds in which drone warfare had advanced since the start of the invasion in 2022, and the ways in which it upended the established doctrines of war.

“From what I see and hear, not a single NATO army is ready to resist the cascade of drones,” Sukharevskyi told Reuters in a recent interview.

He said NATO should recognize the economic advantage of drones, which often cost far less to build than the conventional weaponry required to down them.

“It’s just elementary mathematics. How much does a missile that shoots down a (Russian) Shahed (drone) cost? And how much does it cost to deploy a ship, a plane and an air defense system to fire at it?”

Long-range drones can cost as little as several thousand dollars for the most basic decoy models, although the Shahed strike drones have been estimated to cost in the tens of thousands. Air defense interceptor missiles usually have a six or seven figure U.S.-dollar price tag and many countries only keep limited stocks, thus making their use highly uneconomical.

Sukharevskyi’s comments come as some NATO members in Europe ramp up defense spending to prepare for war should the Ukraine conflict drag on or escalate. With U.S. support for Ukraine and Europe wavering, those efforts have intensified.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, there has been a vast expansion in drone use.

Ukraine says it made 2.2 million small First Person View (FPV) drones and 100,000 larger, long-range ones in 2024. Russia previously gave estimates that it would make 1.4 million FPV drones in the same year.

“Right now, even the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine says that more than 60% of targets are destroyed by drones,” Sukharevskyi said.

“The only question is how the tactics of their use will develop, and, following on from that, the technological aspect.”

Battlefield evolving

Russian attacks, often numbering more than one hundred drones, have become a regular occurrence in Ukraine.

They are conducted by a mix of Iranian-designed Shahed strike drones and much cheaper, flimsier decoy models that can use up Ukraine’s limited stockpiles of air defense missiles.

Ukraine has used pickup trucks with mounted machine guns and military aviation to down drones more efficiently, and Kyiv is working on other options such as using FPV interceptor drones and laser weapons.

Ukraine successfully shot down fixed-wing drones in testing using a laser, Sukharevskyi said, adding that the goal was to roll out laser systems in combat, although he did not specify timelines.

Sukharevskyi said his units were now using a mothership drone that could carry two FPV drones up to 70 km (43 miles) before releasing them and acting as a relay station for their communications.

He estimated that there were thousands of unmanned ground vehicles operating on the frontlines, meaning fewer soldiers were needed to go to dangerous areas for logistics or combat.

On the battlefield, both sides have adopted extensive electronic warfare as they seek to jam signal links to drones in the air, rendering traditional drones inoperable.

This has led to a boom in drones using automated targeting, which guides a drone to its target through artificial intelligence after the pilot selects it through the drone’s camera. However, the decision to strike must be made by a human and not by AI, he said.

Sukharevskyi believes at least half of Ukraine’s frontline drone units are now using such systems to some degree, and that the majority of drones in combat would eventually end up using this system.

Sukharevskyi conceded that Ukraine was not able to fully meet strike drone units' demand for munitions, which are usually supplied separately to drones, but did not give further details.

He said some units had begun making their own, with one brigade able to make 6,000-10,000 munitions per month.

“If it wasn’t for drones, everything would be a lot worse. Drones are the things which allow us to give an asymmetrical response (when) the enemy is larger, stronger and on the attack.”

(Reporting by Max Hunder; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Sharon Singleton)