How disruptions within Strait of Hormuz could reshape how much we pay for food

Politico’s Marcia Brown has more on UN officials saying the aftershocks from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could be like those from the pandemic.

The ongoing conflict involving Iran and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are raising urgent concerns about global food security, according to an expert.

The United Nations has cautioned that disruptions in the critical shipping corridor – through which between 20 to 45 per cent of key agri-food inputs pass – could trigger a cascading crisis across the global food systems.

Despite this, the White House signalled this week that it does not view Iran’s seizure of non-U.S. ships in the strait as a violation of a fragile ceasefire, even as U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the blockade would continue.

Marcia Brown, a food and agriculture expert, says the scale of the disruption goes far beyond fertilizer shortages.

“One of the important things to understand about this is just how different parts of what is in the food supply chain come through the Strait,” Brown said in an interview with CTV Your Morning Thursday. “We talked about fertilizer, but also fuel is a huge part of moving food around the globe.”

With Brent crude oil prices climbing above US$100 per barrel, the cost of diesel – essential for transportation – has surged. Brown notes that this is already driving up logistics costs.

“With diesel prices way higher than they’ve been in years, you’re seeing trucking going up in price. Plastics are going to start to go up in price …aluminum has hit really record highs, especially in the U.S.,” she said. “All of this is contributing to higher food prices, and it will take months to kind of ripple through these supply chain.”

The Middle East supplies roughly a quarter of the raw materials used in plastics manufacturing, including those critical for food packaging. As a result consumers may soon feel the impact not just at farms but on grocery store shelves, Brown explained.

Fertilizer shock hits global markets

Fertilizer markets have already seen dramatic shifts. Urea futures – a key nitrogen-based fertilizer – have surged more than 70 per cent since last year, surpassing US$700 per tonne.

According to the UN, about 16 million tonnes of fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz per year – representing about one third of global seaborne fertilizer trade

“About a third of global fertilizer… come through the Strait and the entire world is going to feel the shock because these are global markets,” Brown said.

While the price hikes will be global, some regions are more vulnerable than others.

“Especially in South Asia, we’ve seen some countries having to shutter their own fertilizer production plants because they can’t get enough fuel … we’ve seen countries cutting down on energy use,” she said.

In March, China instructed exporters to suspend shipments of nitrogen-potassium fertilizer blends and other nutrients due to global market volatility exacerbating global shortages due to the Iran war.

Urea production in India and Bangladesh have been shut down or reduced at multiple plants.

As planting seasons shift between hemispheres, Brown said demand pressures are expected to intensify.

“As the northern hemisphere growing season, you know, comes into the southern hemisphere growing season, we’ll see a desperate impact there, because then those farmers will start to buy fertilizer, pushing up prices,” she said.

Food packing and shortages loom

Beyond farming inputs, packaging shortages could soon emerge as a concern – particularly in developing regions.

She added that the effects will not be immediate but inevitable.

“That’s going to take months,” she noted. “Even if the Strait were to open permanently tomorrow, it’s not going to return to normal overnight.

Governments are beginning to respond but options remain limited in the near term.

According to Brown, some countries have relaxed diesel emissions regulations to ease transportation costs. But she emphasized that structural solutions will take time.

“There aren’t a lot of things that countries can do in the short term to address these issues,” she said. “In the longer term, countries can build out fertilizer production … that can take years to come online.”