Zohran Mamdani’s influence over U.S. Democrats put to the test, and other things to watch in Tuesday’s elections

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani votes during early voting for the New York primary election at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City, on Saturday. (Eduardo Munoz/Reuters via CNN Newsource)

New York’s primaries on Tuesday will test just how influential Mayor Zohran Mamdani is with voters six months into his tenure and offer a preview of the ideological battles to come as Democrats look ahead to the 2028 presidential primary.

The democratic socialist’s decision to endorse candidates in three House races — including against Democratic incumbents in two of them — has raised the stakes in contests for seats the party is all but certain to retain in November.

Those races are among several closely watched primaries in New York. They come on the same day as primaries in Maryland and Utah, and primary runoffs in South Carolina that include a Republican race for governor.

Here are Tuesday’s primaries to watch:

Mamdani’s endorsements in New York

Mamdani endorsed former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander against 10th District Rep. Dan Goldman. Lander was one of the candidates Mamdani defeated in the mayoral race last year, but they were allied against Andrew Cuomo in the primary. He ultimately became an important validator for Mamdani with Jewish voters in the general election, though Lander didn’t get a City Hall job like originally expected.

He backed Darializa Avila Chevalier, an educator and immigrant rights’ activist, against Rep. Adriano Espaillat in the 13th District.

In the 7th District, where 17-term Rep. Nydia Velázquez is retiring, Mamdani is supporting Assemblywoman Claire Valdez, who is taking on Velázquez’s preferred replacement, Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso.

These contests are part of a broader ideological battle being waged within the party — and in recent weeks, Mamdani’s side has had the national momentum.

Democratic socialists on the rise?

A year after Mamdani and and fellow democratic socialist Katie Wilson in Seattle won mayors’ races, at least two more of the United States’ biggest cities could elect democratic socialists.

Earlier this month, city councilwoman Janeese Lewis George won the Democratic primary to become the next mayor of Washington, D.C., all but assuring she will win in November in the overwhelmingly blue city. Primary voters in Los Angeles also chose a democratic socialist city councilwoman, Nithya Raman, to take on incumbent Mayor Karen Bass this fall.

Both Valdez and Avila Chevalier, like Mamdani, are democratic socialists. The mayor’s decision to back Avila Chevalier against Espaillat, the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, has particularly rankled Latino leaders in New York City as well as Jewish leaders who have noted Avila Chevalier’s attendance at a widely condemned pro-Palestinian rally the day after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

But it all comes as the 2028 Democratic primary looms — with candidates likely to enter the protracted battle over what the party’s future should look like in a post-Trump political era as soon as this year’s midterm elections conclude.

At a rally last week with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders for the congressional candidates both are backing, Mamdani said that the Democratic Party for too long “has seen its job as explaining why we cannot instead of showing how we can, and that old way of thinking will lose on Tuesday. And frankly, it will lose in South Carolina and New Hampshire. It will fall short of 270 electoral votes, because the party of the past will not be what leads us into the future.”

“When does the race for 2028 begin?” he added. “It starts now. It starts on Tuesday.”

He also tore into the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, suggesting AIPAC was part of a group of “monsters” that include “those who fund television ads that blanket the airwaves with misleading and bad faith attacks.” His reference to “monsters” drew criticism from some Jewish community leaders who said his language was antisemitic. Mamdani defended what he said when pressed on the subject Monday.

Two more tests of Trump’s endorsement during a tough month

Trump did something rather transparent on Friday.

Facing the prospect of one of his endorsed candidates for governor losing a primary for the third time this month, Trump decided to just endorse the other remaining candidate, too.

Despite having Trump’s endorsement, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette only narrowly led state Attorney General Alan Wilson in the primary two weeks ago, 29 per cent-26 per cent. Wilson is considered a real threat to beat her on Tuesday, and now Trump has backed him as well.

Trump has played games like this with his endorsements before. He endorsed “Eric” in the 2022 Missouri Senate primary, when two top candidates shared that name. (One of them is now-Sen. Eric Schmitt.) And last year, he endorsed business executive Karrin Taylor Robson but then also endorsed Rep. Andy Biggs when Biggs later joined the race. (Robson later dropped out.)

Trump’s second endorsement means he’ll be able to claim he endorsed whoever wins. But if Wilson wins by a decent margin, it’ll be pretty clear Trump was covering his backside — and that his endorsement of Evette failed, just like his endorsement of Rep. Randy Feenstra did in Iowa and just like his backing of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones did in Georgia last week.

But that’s not the only test of Trump’s endorsement Tuesday.

We’ll also see a significant one in Rep. Elise Stefanik’s district. There, Trump-backed businessman Anthony Constantino is facing off against Assemblymember Robert Smullen, who has the backing of the state Republican Party.

Will David Trone light a pile of cash on fire — for a third time?

Earlier this month, we saw a Democratic billionaire lose his second big campaign despite spending gobs of his own money. Six years after his failed bid for the Democrats’ presidential nomination, Tom Steyer spent US$216 million to finish third in the open primary for California governor.

But depending on how things shake out Tuesday, there could be a Democratic billionaire with an even worse record.

That could be former Rep. David Trone, who is challenging Rep. April McClain Delaney in one of the most expensive primaries of 2026. Trone has self-funded more than $25 million. McClain Delaney has also spent millions of her own money.

Trone already holds two of the top 10 spots when it comes to how much of his own money he’s spent per vote in failed campaigns, including a 2016 run for Congress ($379 per vote) and a 2024 run for Senate (more than $200 per vote).

On Tuesday, he’ll either rejoin Congress or make it a third campaign in which he’s lit part of his own fortune on fire.

Could a Trump pardon recipient join Congress?

Trump has pardoned a lot of people — and especially a lot of political allies.

And on Tuesday, one of them could win a primary and be set to join Congress.

Trump pardoned then-state Rep. Phil Lyman in 2020 for illegally riding an all-terrain vehicle in a closed Utah canyon. It was part of a protest against the federal Bureau of Land Management. (Trump has also pardoned others who committed more series crimes while protesting BLM out west.)

Lyman, who lost to Gov. Spencer Cox by eight points in a 2024 primary, is now challenging Rep. Celeste Maloy, a somewhat moderate Republican, in a primary.

If he wins, he’ll be a heavy favourite to join Congress.

A Kennedy family member, a Trump critic, an AI foe and an establishment pick square off

The Democratic primary in the deep-blue, Manhattan-based 12th District is awash with big names — including a Kennedy family scion, a prominent anti-Trump former Republican and two state lawmakers, one of whom is the subject of millions in advertising spending linked to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency forces.

With a fractured field that includes eight candidates, the outcome might not do much to settle the ideological divisions within the Democratic Party. But, with several controversial contenders, it could offer some indication of what voters care about most.

Assemblyman Micah Lasher is the choice of retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, and he’s also backed by Gov. Kathy Hochul and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg in one of the nation’s richest congressional districts.

Another state assemblyman, Alex Bores, is a former Palantir employee who became an enemy of artificial intelligence companies after he co-sponsored a 2025 New York artificial intelligence safety law.

George Conway, once a prominent GOP attorney who emerged as a prominent and frequently televised critic of Trump while his ex-wife, Kellyanne Conway, worked in the president’s White House, is making his first run for office. His candidacy is a test, nearly two years after former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned with former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, of whether Democratic voters have any interest in aligning with former Republicans who sided with the party not out of ideological alignment but distaste for the president.

The 33-year-old Jack Schlossberg is the grandson of former U.S. president John F. Kennedy and the son of Caroline Kennedy. He is seeking to become the latest in a long line of Kennedy family members — and if he wins, he would be the only one currently in elected office.

The last Kennedy to win an election was former U.S. Rep. Joe Kennedy III in 2018; he lost a run for a Senate seat in Massachusetts two years later. However, three family members — including Schlossberg’s mother — were ambassadors or envoys during former U.S. president Joe Biden’s administration, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is U.S. president Donald Trump’s health and human services secretary.

By Aaron Blake, Eric Bradner, CNN